FACTBOX-Scenarios in Slovak coalition crisis

    Nov 28 (Reuters) - The ruling Slovak coalition teetered on 
the brink of collapse on Wednesday amid a fresh row between 
leftist Prime Minister Robert Fico and his political partners, 
the centrist Movement for a Democratic Slovakia (HZDS). 
    Following are possible outcomes of the coalition crisis. 
 (For a story on the coalition crisis, click on [ID:nL2849663]) 
     
    HZDS STAYS 
    The HZDS stays in the coalition with Fico's leftist Smer and 
the far-right Slovak National Party (SNS). HZDS has little 
interest in early polls as support for the party has been 
falling. 
     
    HZDS LEAVES, OR IS THROWN OUT 
    If the HZDS leaves or is thrown out, the cabinet will lose 
parliamentary majority. 
    Fico may seek to form a minority government together with 
the SNS, hoping that some HZDS deputies might still support the 
cabinet. The HZDS has a history of disunity. SNS chief Jan Slota 
specifically mentioned this scenario on Wednesday. 
    If HZDS stayed united and teamed up with the opposition to 
win a no-confidence vote, Fico's government would fall. Talks 
would then start on forming a new administration. 
    President Ivan Gasparovic would ask a leader who can 
guarantee majority support in parliament to form a new 
government and seek a confidence vote in the assembly. 
     
    EARLY ELECTION 
    If no government wins a confidence vote in six months, the 
president may call a new election. An early election can also be 
called if 90 out of the parliament's 150 deputies agree to it. 
    Opinion polls show that in the case of a snap election, Smer 
could win 17 extra seats, while all other parties would lose, 
giving them little incentive to bring the election forward. 
     
    PARLIAMENT SEATS  
    Coalition:  
    * Smer                                          50 seats 
    * Slovak National Party (SNS)                   19 
    * Movement for a Democratic Slovakia (HZDS)     16 
    Opposition: 
    * Slovak Democratic and Christian Union (SDKU)  31 seats 
    * Hungarian coalition (SMK)                     20 
    * Christian-Democratic Movement (KDH)           14 
     
    EURO IMPLICATIONS 
    Both the government and opposition support 2009 euro entry, 
diminishing the threat of a major policy shift. But analysts say 
political turbulence could weaken financial discipline in the 
run-up to euro adoption. 
    The country, whose economy expanded by 9.4 percent in the 
third quarter, is expected to meet all nominal euro criteria 
when it is assessed next spring despite a spike in inflation, 
but EU officials have said sustainability of low inflation would 
also be considered. 
 (Reporting by Peter Laca and Jan Lopatka; Editing by Caroline 
Drees) 
 ((peter.laca@reuters.com; +421 2 5341 8402; Reuters Messaging: 
peter.laca.reuters.com@reuters.net))  
  Keywords: SLOVAKIA COALITION/CRISIS