(Repeats story published late on Wednesday)
PRAGUE, April 14 (Reuters) - The leftist Czech Social Democrats will win the
May 28-29 election but small centrist parties may take enough seats to make
forming a government difficult, an opinion poll showed on Wednesday.
The poll by the Factum Invenio agency showed support for the Social
Democrats (CSSD) edged up to 29.5 percent in early April from 28.7 percent last
month.
But it showed that four right-wing and centrist parties would between them
win 100 out of the 200 parliamentary seats versus 100 for the Social Democrats
and the far-left Communists.
That would recreate the current hung parliament elected in 2006, which led
to months of negotiations before the eventual creation of a weak centre-right
administration that collapsed a year ago.
Such a result could further delay reforms of the pension and health systems,
areas that increasingly pressure the budget and which have been tackled by other
central and east European countries.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ For graphs showing the development of support for the main parties, click on
http://r.reuters.com/veb24j and http://r.reuters.com/hef34j
For a story on the Civic Democrat campaign click on []
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ The poll results showed that the Social Democrats would not have enough
seats to form a minority cabinet supported by the far-left Communists.
They could form a grand coalition with the main right-wing party, the Civic
Democrats, an option which both parties have denied so far.
The Civic Democrats polled 22.3 percent, a marginal dip from 22.5 percent in
March. The poll showed the party, suffering from a string of graft scandals, was
not affected immediately by the resignation of former prime minister Mirek
Topolanek and his replacement by Vice-Chairman Petr Necas as party leader.
The Czech Republic has been run by a non-partisan government since leftist
parties toppled the centre-right Civic Democrat-led coalition government a year
ago.
DATE INSTITUTE ODS CSSD KSCM TOP09 KDU-CSL Greens VV
April 14/10 Factum 22.3 29.5 13.9 11.6 5.5 2.6 8.9
April 13/10 Median 21.2 27.0 16.8 7.5 7.4 4.8 4.3
March 24/10 Factum 22.5 28.7 13.9 11.1 5.8 3.4 9.2
March 17/10 CVVM 25.5 32.0 12.0 10.0 4.5 4.5 7.0
March 16/10 STEM 20.0 27.9 11.3 7.7 4.8 3.8 6.2
Feb 2010 Median 20.7 34.5 13.9 9.6 5.5 4.8 5.2
Feb 24/10 Factum 23.8 27.9 14.3 13.0 6.4 3.7 5.7
Feb 19/10 CVVM 20.5 33.0 14.5 12.5 5.0 5.0 6.0
Feb 18/10 STEM 23.2 28.6 11.7 9.1 4.3 2.7 4.7
Jan 2010 Median 27.8 32.0 12.8 9.3 7.4 4.3 2.4
Jan 31/10 Factum 25.5 31.8 13.3 11.4 6.6 2.0 3.8
Jan 27/10 CVVM 25.5 28.0 12.0 13.0 7.0 6.0 4.0
Jan 19/10 STEM 20.9 28.7 10.9 8.4 4.2 4.0 3.9
Dec 17/09 CVVM 24.0 34.0 12.5 13.5 4.5 4.5 4.5
Dec 17/09 STEM 22.5 28.7 10.9 8.3 5.7 3.8 2.9
Nov 19/09 CVVM 26.5 34.5 11.0 12.0 5.0 4.0 3.5
Nov 18/09 STEM 23.3 25.4 12.3 8.4 5.1 3.5 1.8
Oct 27/09 STEM 25.2 26.2 11.6 8.7 4.1 3.2 -
Oct 21/09 CVVM 26.0 32.0 15.0 14.0 5.5 4.0 -
Oct 08/09 CVVM 28.5 32.0 12.0 12.5 6.0 3.0 -
Oct 02/09 STEM 23.2 27.4 10.6 9.2 4.2 4.6 -
Sept 16/09 CVVM 29.5 29.5 15.5 13.0 5.5 4.5 -
Aug 31/09 STEM 24.1 29.0 11.2 6.8 5.7 2.7 -
Aug 19/09 CVVM 31.0 33.0 13.5 9.5 5.0 3.0 -
June 25/09 CVVM 35.0 30.0 16.0 2.0 6.5 5.5 -
June 19/09 STEM 28.3 28.2 12.8 - 6.2 2.7 -
May 19/09 STEM 23.7 32.4 10.9 - 5.3 5.9 -
May 19/09 CVVM 29.0 38.0 15.0 - 7.0 6.5 -
April 15/09 CVVM 28.0 37.5 15.5 - 7.0 7.0 -
April 15/09 STEM 27.5 35.1 10.5 - 4.4 5.6 -
March 18/09 CVVM 31.5 36.0 16.0 - 5.0 7.0 -
March 17/09 STEM 27.8 35.3 11.0 - 6.0 5.3 -
Feb 18/09 CVVM 29.0 38.5 15.5 - 7.0 6.0 -
Feb 13/09 STEM 25.5 35.2 11.8 - 6.8 5.1 -
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June 2006 election 35.4 32.3 12.8 - 7.2 6.3 -
NOTE. The Median poll was conducted between March 2 and April 1 among 1,085
Czechs.
The parties are:
- Civic Democratic Party (ODS) - right-of-centre, liberal-conservative
- The Czech Social Democratic Party (CSSD) - leftist
- The Communist Party of Bohemia and Moravia (KSCM) - far left
- TOP09 - Newly formed conservative party, likely ally of the ODS
- Christian Democratic Union-Czechoslovak People's Party (KDU-CSL) - centrist
- The Greens - environmentalists, centrist
- Veci Verejne (Public Affairs) - new, small liberal party
Pollsters: The CVVM and Median results are based on a model predicting gains
at the ballot box, excluding those not willing to vote and undecided.
STEM results are direct voter preferences, and include replies from all
respondents including those not willing to vote. Parties should thus win a
larger than indicated share of the vote at the election. This is relevant mainly
for small parties, which may cross the 5 percent threshold to win seats even if
direct voter preferences show them below the minimum level.
(Reporting by Jan Lopatka; Editing by Ruth Pitchford)
