PRAGUE, Sept 15 (Reuters) - Czech industrial producer prices
dipped by 0.4 percent month-on-month in August but rose 1.8
percent from a year ago, showing the fifth annual growth since
November 2008, according to data on Wednesday.
Analysts had forecast a 0.1 percent month-on-month increase
in industrial PPI and a growth of 2.2 percent year on year
<CZ/ECON04> <CZ/ECON15> <ECONCZ>. In July, producer prices rose
2.3 percent year-on-year.
Month-on-month growth in August was driven mainly by a 4.0
percent drop in coke and refining products. Food product prices
fell 0.2 percent.
The statistics bureau said agricultural producer prices rose
by 3.0 percent on the month, and showed its first annual growth
in 23 months, rising 8.8 percent.
****************************************************************
KEY POINTS:
(change in percent) Aug July Aug forecast
PPI
month/month -0.4 0.0 0.1
year/year 1.8 2.3 2.2
(For full table of data........................[])
COMMENTARY:
PAVEL SOBISEK, CHIEF ECONOMIST, UNICREDIT, PRAGUE
"Our estimate was below the market estimate, so it´s not
such a big surprise for us. The truth is however that the prices
fell more than we expected on a month to month basis."
"It seems that the overall decline is to a certain level
influenced by the exchange rate of the Czech crown, which was
strengthening in July. The only exception among the groups that
went up were the agricultural prices, where we see mild growth."
"I think that in the next months PPI will be influenced by
the prices of agricultural products."
JIRI SKOP, ANALYST, KOMERCNI BANKA
"The reason (for the drop) was a drop in oil prices in crown
terms in previous months. While this drop was expected, more
significant growth that would compensated for in other sectors
did not happen."
"From the central bank's point of view and for future
inflation pressures, agricultural prices are much more
important. These prices... show future inflation pressures in
food prices in consumer inflation."
HELENA HORSKA, ANALYST, RAIFFEISENBANK
"The sharp acceleration of Czech inflation does not worry us
because planned cuts in public spending will squeeze
consumption. The space for price growth is very narrow."
"We expect the central bank to leave interest rates without
changes for six to nine months."
DETAILS:
- Prices of chemicals dropped by 1.3 percent on the month and
prices of vehicles fell by 1.6 percent, the statistics office
said.
- Construction work prices dipped 0.1 percent month-on-month and
dropped 0.3 percent year-on-year.
- Prices in the service sector rose 0.1 percent on the month and
fell 1.0 percent year-on-year.
BACKGROUND:
- Industrial PPI and agriculture producer prices are watched
closely by the markets as leading indicators for consumer
inflation, which is targeted by the Czech central bank (CNB).
- August consumer inflation []
- July industrial output figures []
- Report on last Czech c.bank rate decision......[]
[] [] []
LINKS:
- For further details on August producer prices and past data,
Reuters 3000 Xtra users can click on the statistical bureau's
Website:
http://www.czso.cz/eng/csu.nsf/kalendar/2004-ipc
- For LIVE Czech economic data releases, click on <ECONCZ>
- Instant Views on other Czech data []
- Overview of Czech macroeconomic indicators []
- Key data releases in central Europe []
- For Czech money markets data click on <CZKVIEW>
- Czech money guide <CZK/1>
- Czech benchmark state bond prices <0#CZBMK=>
- Czech forward money market rates <CZKFRA>
(Writing by Jason Hovet)
