*Zloty seen at 3.9/euro in 3 months vs 3.98 Feb poll
*Zloty seen at 3.75 in 12 months vs 3.81 Feb poll
*Crown seen at 25.6 in 3 months vs 25.7 Feb poll
*Hungary forint forecast 271.00 in 3 months (271.5 Feb poll)
By Sandor Peto
BUDAPEST, March 5 (Reuters) - The zloty could firm more
against the euro over the next year than previously expected,
leading currency strength across the region as economies start
recovering, a monthly Reuters poll showed on Friday.
The poll of 46 economists was conducted Mar. 1-4.
According to median forecasts, the currencies of Poland and
the Czech Republic -- the region's soundest economies -- could
post strong gains, mainly on the 6-12 month horizon when the two
countries' central banks are expected to hike interest rates.
Hungary's forint is expected to weaken slightly to 271.00
against the euro in the next 3 months until after the country's
April elections when the new government should clarify whether
it wants to keep fiscal policy tight, analysts said.
The forint is expected to firm slightly to around 265.3 in
12 months, according to the median forecast in the poll.
The zloty is expected to firm 1.3 percent from Thursday's
closing level in the next six months to 3.85 against the euro, a
stronger level than last month's 3.95 consensus forecast, while
the 12-month forecast was strengthened to 3.75 from 3.81.
"An improving fiscal position as well as the positive
momentum of the Polish economy support the medium-term
appreciation of the zloty," said Radoslaw Cholewinski of Noble
Bank in Warsaw.
Interest rates are much higher, and monetary easing has not
finished yet in Hungary and Romania. Their currencies have
firmed in the past few days close to levels against the euro
where analysts expect them to be in a year from now.
RESILIENT TO GREECE, EURO WEAKNESS
The region's units will remain vulnerable to fiscal tensions
in the euro zone's periphery and any dollar rallies against the
euro, the region's reference currency. <EUR=>
But they have proved quite resilient in the past months and
their firming remains on track unless global risk aversion
surges or the region's key export markets sink back into
recession, analysts said.
The zloty <EURPLN=> has already firmed more than five
percent this year, the leu <EURRON=> almost four percent, the
crown <EURCZK=> two percent and the forint <EURHUF=> about 1.5
percent.
The forint and the leu could give up some ground in the next
month, and the zloty could also retreat slightly in the next
weeks from 14-month highs reached this week according to the
consensus forecasts in the poll.
But on the 12-month horizon the zloty is expected to firm
four percent from its closing levels on Thursday, the crown
three percent, the leu one percent and the forint half percent.
In another Reuters poll this week, analysts slashed their
forecasts for the euro against the dollar due to fears that
other euro zone states might share Greece's debt woes.
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Analysts have said the debt saga may discourage eastern
European Union members from hurrying into the euro zone.
But the vulnerability of their currencies to dollar strength
has eased considerably since the worst of the global crisis,
even though their prospects remain tied to those of the euro
zone, the region's main export market.
"The general view on the region remains positive," said
Radomir Jac of Generali PPF in Prague. "Assuming that cases such
as Greece are solved, the ... currencies should strengthen
further in the second half of this year."
The forint is also seen resuming a firming trend if
Hungary's next government, likely to be formed by main
opposition party Fidesz, proves fiscally responsible.
"If market conditions remain supportive and (Hungary's)
fiscal discipline is maintained (not counting one-off
quasi-fiscal consolidation costs) the forint could begin to firm
again in the second half of 2010," CIB Bank's Gyorgy Barta said.
For detailed forecasts please click on <CEEFXPOLL01>
To see latest poll on major currencies, please see
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For more analyst comments on CEE currencies please click on
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(Reporting by Sandor Peto; Editing by Ruth Pitchford)
