* Euro edging off lows after being hit by stop-loss orders
* Mood remains cautious after bleak U.S. jobs numbers
* But Reuters poll shows Aussie, kiwi to be well supported
By Charlotte Cooper
TOKYO, July 3 (Reuters) - The euro struggled back from its
lowest levels in a week on Friday, after a wave of sell orders
compounded losses made on bleak U.S. jobs numbers, and it found
support as some investors judged it may have slipped too far.
Dealers said the euro hit stop-loss sell orders around
$1.3980, and possible hedge fund selling, in the crossover
between late U.S. trade and the start of the Asian day, sending
it down to $1.3927 <EUR=> on electronic trading platform EBS.
The euro and currencies such as the Australian dollar, which
have benefited from investor hopes for economic turnaround, had
already weakened on Thursday after data showed U.S. employers cut
467,000 jobs in June, far more than expected. []
But analysts said market players then bought the euro back on
Friday, helping it off the lows, although it was still weaker
than before the employment data and investors were still dismayed
the jobs numbers spelled a slower recovery than hoped.
"The risk in the very short term is that maybe we could see
some corrective activity. But I don't think we're going into
serious risk aversion mode," said Sharada Selvanathan, a currency
strategist at BNP Paribas in Hong Kong.
The euro stood at $1.4002 <EUR=> on EBS, after shedding more
than 1 percent on Thursday. It had hit a one-month high above
$1.4200 earlier in the week.
The euro dropped as far as 133.58 yen <EURJPY=R> on Friday,
extending a fall of nearly 2 percent on Thursday, but had edged
back to 134.44 yen later in Asian trade.
It had also faced selling pressure after comments from
European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet the previous
day that euro-zone activity would likely remain weak for the rest
of the year. The ECB left its benchmark refinancing interest rate
at a record low of 1 percent, as expected. []
The dollar was steady against the yen at 96.00 yen <JPY=>,
holding well within a range of 93.50-100 that has limited it
since mid-April.
With the jobs data out of the way, traders said focus was
shifting to the Group of Eight meeting on July 8-10 and the U.S.
corporate earnings season that kicks off next week.
"Market players will watch China's comment on an alternative
global currency. This is something that could take about 50 to
100 years, but the country's comment could still affect the
market, even very briefly," said Tsutomu Soma, a senior manager
in the foreign securities department at Okasan Securities.
China has been talking about diversification of the
international currency system, and said it would be "normal" for
the issue to be raised at next week's G8 summit. []
"As for U.S. company earnings, the poor jobs data likely
dampened over-optimism and the tolerance for the downside might
have increased," Soma said.
RALLY OR STALL?
A rally in riskier currencies against the euro and yen has
stalled in the past month as investors have fretted that, along
with stock markets, it has got ahead of the economic recovery.
Traders said after the jobs data investors cut long positions
in these currencies against the yen and dollar, helping drive
both higher, and analysts say investors need stronger evidence of
economic turnaround to push on with the more pro-risk trades.
With volumes thin due to a U.S. holiday, price movements were
choppy, with some driven by short-term speculators, and the
market in general was struggling for direction.
The Australian dollar also dipped to its lowest levels in a
week after the jobs numbers but rebounded 0.7 percent to $0.7973
<AUD=D4>, according to Reuters data, although it is still below
an eight-month high of $0.8265 set in early June.
It fell more than 2 percent against the yen on Thursday but
was clawing back those losses on Friday, up 0.9 percent from late
U.S. levels at 76.60 yen <AUDJPY=R>.
The Aussie is expected to remain strong at $0.80 in the next
month, according to a Reuters poll published on Friday,
underpinned by speculation that interest rates at home have
bottomed.
Investors are also likely to show continued demand for
high-yielding New Zealand assets, with the kiwi dollar <NZD=D4>
expected to rise to $0.6400 in a month's time, from around
$0.6300 now. []
"The supportive outlook for commodity prices and positive
interest rate differentials should keep the Aussie well supported
and one does not rule out a near-term move above $0.81," Kenneth
Broux, an economist at Lloyds TSB, said in the poll.
"Strong demand from China for Australian commodities may also
help the Aussie to outperform in the near term."
For an index of FOREX POLL stories, click on []
(Additional reporting by Rika Otsuka and Aiko Hayashi; Editing
by Chris Gallagher)
