INSTANT VIEW 3-Czech July trade surplus above fcast

                                
 PRAGUE, Sept 4 (Reuters) - The Czech foreign trade balance
posted a larger-than-expected 7.2 billion crown ($421 million)
 surplus in July, data showed on Thursday.
**************************************************************
KEY POINTS:
(in bln CZK)           July        June         July fcast
 balance               7.24       15.34 (13.92)   2.70
(nominal y/y change in pct)
 exports               3.2         2.5  (1.7)     n/a
 imports              -0.9        -0.1  (-1.0)    n/a

 (For full table of trade data, click on........[nPRA002108])

- According to seasonally-adjusted preliminary data, exports
dipped 0.8 percent in July from June, while imports rose 1.6
percent month-on-month.
- In euro terms, exports and imports rose 24.2 percent and 19.3
percent year-on-year in July, outpacing the dynamics in crowns,
thanks to the firming of the domestic currency.
- Export in trade with vehicles and machinery rose by 3.8
percent year-on-year, import dipped by 4.1 percent year-on-year.
                                
 
                                
 COMMENTS
                                
 PETR DUFEK, ANALYST, CSOB 
                                
 "This excellent, unexpected, great number is due to the
continually growing exports of machines and transport vehicles,
a higher number of working days and low domestic demand."
                                
 "The new number, along with revised figures from the
previous surplus, signals that foreign trade is running
wonderfully even despite the high price of commodities, a strong
crown and weak demand in Europe."
                                
 "For now it appears that Czech economic growth continues to
depend on trade while domestic demand is dying down."
                                
 
                                
 MICHAL BROZKA, ANALYST, RAIFFEISENBANK
                                
 "At first view the data is better than expected. On the
other hand, if you look at the seasonally-adjusted data, we have
confirmation of a deterioration in exports."
                                
 "As long as the data doesn't influence the Czech crown too
much, it won't have much impact (on monetary policy)."
                                
 
                                
 JAN VEJMELEK, HEAD OF ECONOMIC AND STRATEGY RESEARCH,
KOMERCNI BANKA
                                
 "It was a positive surprise, as the surplus was bigger than
expected. But if you look at the export growth it was not that
high. From the structure it is visible that there is some
slowing in the Czech economy... (from) weaker demand, and
imports were down."
                                
 
                                
 TOMAS VLK, ANALYST, PATRIA FINANCE
                                
 "The better than expected number is thanks to rising exports
of cars and declining exports on the back of slowing economy."
                                
 "We expect no major impact on monetary policy and still see
further loosening of monetary conditions."
                                
 
                                
 BACKGROUND:
- Market expectations before release              [ID:nLJ382719]
- Slovak June trade figures                       [ID:nLB660381]
- Report on last Czech c.bank rate decision         [ID:nL74314]
                                
                               [ID:nL7705441] [ID:nPRA002063]

- For further details on July foreign trade and other past data,
Reuters 3000 Xtra users can click on the Czech Statistical
Bureau's website:
                                
 http://www.czso.cz/eng/csu.nsf/kalendar/2004-vzo

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 (Reporting by Jana Mlcochova; Editing by Michael Winfrey)