* China June crude imports at 5.42 mln bpd, record high
* Coming Up: U.S. companies' Q2 earnings season
* U.S. retail sales, industrial production data awaited
(Correct NYMEX crude net longs paragraph 12)
By Christopher Johnson
LONDON, July 12 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures fell
below $76 per barrel on Monday, consolidating after a week of
gains and ahead of quarterly U.S. company earnings and key
macro-economic data.
S&P 500 <.SPX> earnings are expected to have risen more than
25 percent in the second quarter but the outlook for consumer
demand is less bright. U.S. retail sales figures on Wednesday
are expected to show spending easing in June. []
The dollar rose against a basket of currencies <.DXY> as
gold <XAU=> slipped. A firmer dollar often depresses commodities
as it makes them more expensive for holders of other currencies.
Crude for August delivery <CLc1> fell 60 cents to $75.49 a
barrel by 1333 GMT, after closing last week with a gain of more
than 5 percent, its biggest weekly jump since May. Brent crude
<LCOc1> was trading 55 cents lower at $74.87 a barrel.
For a technical view, click: []
"Last week was very strong," said Eugen Weinberg, head of
commodities research at Commerzbank in Frankfurt. "Chinese data
was very supportive but there is caution ahead of this week's
data and results."
Oil rose early on Monday following Chinese figures showing a
43.9 percent surge in exports in June from a year earlier, while
crude imports in the world's second-largest energy user rose by
a quarter to hit a record high above 22 million tonnes.
[] []
At $75 per barrel, oil prices are in the middle of a range
identified by both oil producers and consumers as comfortable:
high enough to encourage investment and exploration but not so
high as to bring rampant inflation or damage economic growth.
VOLATILITY FALLING
The market is also almost at the average closing price over
the last year, now around $75.50. U.S. crude is well below a
19-month peak above $87 reached in early May but has rebounded
sharply from below $65 on May 20.
Implied volatility <CLATMIV> for U.S. crude has fallen to
around 31 percent after hitting a peak above 45 percent in May.
Investors have unwound long positions in the past couple of
weeks, implying less confidence with the economic outlook.
Net speculative long positions on NYMEX crude were cut by
nearly 20,000 to 55,116 in the week to July 6, data from the
Commodity Futures Trading Commission on Friday showed, the third
week of falls. []
<^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
For a graphic of At The Money Implied Volatility (ATMIV) for
U.S. light crude oil against front-month futures, click:
http://link.reuters.com/saj96m
For a graphic of NYMEX speculative crude positions, click:
http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/10/CFTC_Crude090710.gif
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^>
Quarterly U.S. company results will be followed closely this
week. David Hufton, head of oil brokers PVM, said the oil market
was "caught in the slipstream of the stock markets".
"The stock markets reflect economic sentiment and without
specific events to take oil prices in a different direction they
simply tuck in behind the stock market peloton," Hufton said.
"Earnings announcements begin today and if they are as good
as some believe they could be, we can expect a bullish week for
oil and stocks. It may all, however, turn out to be a short-term
reprieve. Whilst short-term economic sentiment may be positive,
concerns about the future are not going away," he said.
U.S. June retail sales data out on Wednesday will be a key
gauge to the country's economic recovery, said Stephen Schork,
president of energy advisory firm the Schork Group.
"If we are to see serious gains from the bulls this week, we
will need to see strength in equities, strong retail sales
figures and a weaker dollar would not hurt," he said in a note.
(Additional reporting by Osamu Tsukimori and Florence Tan;
editing by Keiron Henderson)
