* Oil slumps on equities fall, dollar rise
* U.S. retail sales, industrial production data awaited
* Coming Up: U.S. companies' Q2 earnings season
(Updates price)
By Brian Ellsworth
NEW YORK, July 12 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures fell
to $75 per barrel on Monday driven by slumping equities markets
and a firmer dollar following gains the week before.
U.S. stock markets were broadly down as investors fretted
about Europe's fiscal issues while the U.S. dollar rose as
concerns about the results of European bank stress tests pushed
down the euro.
A firmer dollar often pushes commodities down as it makes
them more expensive for holders of other currencies.
Crude for August delivery <CLc1> fell 86 cents to $75.23 a
barrel by 12:45 p.m. EDT (1645 GMT), after closing last week
with a gain of more than 5 percent, -- its biggest weekly jump
since May. Brent crude <LCOc1> was down 77 cents at $74.65 a
barrel.
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COLUMN-Hedge fund oil positions fall []
COLUMN-Paradise lost for commods longs? []
TECHNICALS-Oil may fall to $64.24 []
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Traders were looking and ahead to quarterly U.S. company
earnings that kick off Monday afternoon as well as U.S. retail
sales and industrial production data later in the week.
"Oil bulls need the market to focus on anything other than
supply. With no tropical storm worries it's all about earnings,
not to mention of course the stocks and the dollar," said Phil
Flynn, senior analyst, PFGBest Research in Chicago.
The S&P 500 <.SPX> was off 0.39 percent and the Dow Jones
Industrial Average <> down 0.20 percent as the the dollar
<.DXY> firmed 0.48 percent against a basket of currencies.
Oil rose earlier on Monday following Chinese figures
showing a 43.9 percent surge in exports in June from a year
earlier, while crude imports in the world's second-largest
energy user rose by a quarter to hit a record high above 22
million tonnes. [] []
At $75 per barrel, oil prices are in the middle of a range
identified by both oil producers and consumers as comfortable:
high enough to encourage investment and exploration but not so
high as to bring rampant inflation or damage economic growth.
VOLATILITY FALLING
The market is close to the average closing price over the
last year, now around $75.50. U.S. crude is well below a
19-month peak above $87 reached in early May but has rebounded
sharply from below $65 on May 20.
Implied volatility <CLATMIV> for U.S. crude has fallen to
around 31 percent after hitting a peak above 45 percent in
May.
Investors have unwound long positions in the past couple of
weeks, implying less confidence with the economic outlook.
Net speculative long positions on NYMEX crude were cut by
nearly 20,000 to 55,116 in the week to July 6, data from the
Commodity Futures Trading Commission on Friday showed, the
third week of falls. []
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Graphic of At The Money Implied Volatility (ATMIV):
http://link.reuters.com/saj96m
Graphic of NYMEX speculative crude positions:
http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/10/CFTC_Crude090710.gif
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U.S. June retail sales data out on Wednesday will be a key
gauge to the country's economic recovery, said Stephen Schork,
president of energy advisory firm the Schork Group.
"If we are to see serious gains from the bulls this week,
we will need to see strength in equities, strong retail sales
figures and a weaker dollar would not hurt," he said in a
note.
(Additional reporting by Gene Ramos in New York, Osamu
Tsukimori and Florence Tan; Editing by Lisa Shumaker)
