(Repeats story published on Feb 3)
* WHAT: Dec foreign trade, Jan unemployment, Jan CPI
* WHEN: Trade, unemployment on Feb 8, CPI on Feb 9
* FCAST: Trade surplus CZK 3.5 bln, CPI 1.0 pct yr/yr,
unemployment 9.7 pct
By Mirka Krufova and Jana Mlcochova
PRAGUE, Feb 3 (Reuters) - Czech exports likely grew in
December reversing an over a year-long decline, showing a
recovery in the small and open economy is gaining traction.
Consumer prices likely jumped on a tax hike in January, a
one-off factor that will likely allow the central bank to leave
interest rates flat at record low for several months.
FOREIGN TRADE
Industrial output data released last week showed the first
annual rise since September indicating improvement in foreign
trade. []
A Reuters poll of 17 analysts produced a median forecast for
a December foreign trade <CZFTB=ECI> surplus of 3.5 billion
crowns ($189.3 million), the first December surplus since 1996.
Exports were seen rising 1.9 percent, after thirteen months of
shrinking and a stagnation in November.
But the end of car scrapping subsidies in neighbouring
Germany and unclear trend in foreign demand could weigh on the
economy in the coming months.
* MARKET REACTION: An upbeat foreign trade data could boost
investors bets on assets in central Europe, which many believe
could see a stronger recovery then the euro zone.
A better-than-expected data could strengthen expectations
for a swifter policy tightening by the central bank.
INFLATION
Consumer price growth <CZCPI=ECI> likely stagnated in
year-on-year terms in January at 1 percent, the bottom edge of
the central bank's target band, and rose 1.5 percent from
December, the survey showed.
Prices were lifted chiefly by tax hikes and food and
commodity prices, which are disregarded by the central bank.
"We expect the central bank to play down a stronger monthly
outturn as it is focused on the monetary relevant inflation
(excluding first round impact of higher indirect taxes)," said
Jaromir Sindel, chief economist at Citibank in Prague.
"Nevertheless, the price expectations increased in both
households and among retailers, which could represent to some
extent an issue for the bank board."
*MARKET REACTION: Higher than expected price growth, along
with any signs of demand-led price pressures, could bring a
moderate strengthening in the crown <EURCZK=> as it would boost
the likelihood of higher monetary policy rates.
UNEMPLOYMENT
January unemployment <CZUNR=ECI> was forecast to hit 9.7
percent, the highest since February 2005.
Analysts said unemployment would rise further but the peak
could be lower and come earlier then in 2011 as they had
forecast earlier.
*MARKET REACTION: A better unemployment number may point to
a quickening recovery, although markets do not usually show
significant reaction to the jobless figure.
For Czech December macro preview table: []
Czech stats office website: www.czso.cz
Czech labour and social affairs ministry www.mpsv.cz
All Czech economic data: <ECONALLCZ>
Central and Eastern Europe market report: <CEE/>
(Editing by Patrick Graham)
