PRAGUE, Feb 8 (Reuters) - Czech foreign trade posted a 2.8
billion crown ($146.4 million) surplus in December, smaller than
analyst forecasts in a Reuters poll, data showed on Monday.
The Czech statistics data showed it was the first December
surplus since 1996. Exports rose 4.8 percent year on year, after
being flat last month, following thirteen months of contraction.
Imports fell by 2.6 percent.
Analysts noted a month-on-month fall in both imports and
exports was due to lower new orders in Germany. Annual rises in
both sectors were also influenced by a low comparative base a
year earlier.
The full-year 2009 trade balance showed a 153.2 billion
crown surplus, up from 67.3 in 2008, the statistics office said.
Data also showed the jobless rate rose to 9.8 percent of the
workforce in January from 9.2 percent a month earlier, the
highest level since January 2005. Analysts in a Reuters poll saw
unemployment at 9.7 percent.
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KEY POINTS:
FOREIGN TRADE
(in bln CZK) Dec Nov Dec fcast
balance 2.81 14.54 3.5
(nominal y/y change in pct)
exports 4.8 0.0 +1.9
imports -2.6 -8.0 -6.5
CZECH UNEMPLOYMENT Jan Dec Jan forecast
pct of workforce 9.8 9.2 9.7
Details of December foreign trade data..........[]
Details of January jobless data.................[]
- According to seasonally-adjusted preliminary data, exports
dipped 0.9 percent in December from November, while imports
slipped 0.2 percent month-on-month.
- In euro terms, exports rose 4.9 percent and imports fell 2.5
percent year-on-year in December.
- The balance showed an annual improvement by 11.9 billion
crowns after the December foreign trade figure last year showed
a 9.07 billion gap.
- The improvement was mainly due a narrowing deficit in trade
with minerals. The surplus in trade in cars and machinery and
industrial consumer products rose by 2.6 billion crowns.
- Exports of cars and machinery rose by 5.6 percent
year-on-year. Imports in that sector rose 3.1 percent.
COMMENTARY
DAVID MAREK, CHIEF ECONOMIST, PATRIA FINANCE
"Exports showed almost a 5 percent annual growth, which is
the best result in the last fifteen months. It is due to an
improvement in the economic situation in the euro zone, but I
should warn that the latest data from the euro zone were not so
encouraging. The post-scrappage subsidy effect is showing and
that could influence the balance in the beginning of the year."
"Months on month seasonally adjusted exports fell; Both
industrial output in the months on month terms and industrial
orders in Germany were not so positive at the end of the last
year so this could be the reason."
RADOMIR JAC, CHIEF ANALYST, GENERALI PPF ASSET MANAGEMENT
"Overall I read December foreign trade statistics as
somewhat more favourable than expected: although the surplus is
slightly lower than expected, dynamics of both exports and
imports show better performance than what we assumed."
"The foreign trade surplus was supported by combination of
low mineral fuel prices and car scrapping subsidies in major
export markets, while domestic demand in Czech economy and hence
imports were weak in 2009."
"This will change in 2010, as we expect higher oil price on
average while car scrapping subsidies schemes are running out."
"However, foreign trade surplus may still reach a CZK 130
billion area in 2010 and foreign trade developments should thus
remain a positive factor for the Czech crown performance in
months and quarters to come."
JAROMIR SINDEL, CHIEF ECONOMIST, CITIBANK, PRAGUE
"The negative thing was the month on month development in
seasonally adjusted exports, which fell. But it was in line with
the development recorded in industrial output."
"The data is line with expectations and we see no monetary
policy implications."
PAVEL SOBISEK, CHIEF ECONOMIST, UNICREDIT, PRAGUE
"Trade is more or less in line with expectations.
Importantly, exports have resumed growth again on a year-on-year
basis. Also in line is that imports continue to decline."
"The result is a significant improvement in the balance."
"It is also the best full year outcome regarding the
surplus. So it is mildly positive, even though not unexpected."
"Regarding unemployment, it could have been worse... We
should see some rise still in February and maybe in March. But
March should be a peak... and should not be much above 10
percent."
BACKGROUND:
- Market expectations before release []
- Slovak Nov trade figures []
- Report on last Czech c.bank rate decision......[]
[] [] []
- For further details on December foreign trade and other past
data, Reuters 3000 Xtra users can click on the Czech Statistical
Bureau's website:
http://www.czso.cz/eng/csu.nsf/kalendar/2004-vzo
- For LIVE Czech economic data releases, click on <ECONCZ>
- Instant Views on other Czech data click on []
- Overview of Czech macroeconomic indicators []
- Key data releases in central Europe []
- For Czech money markets data click on <CZKVIEW>
- Czech money guide <CZK/1>
- Czech benchmark state bond prices <0#CZBMK=>
- Czech forward money market rates <CZKFRA>
(Reporting by Jana Mlcochova)
