BUDAPEST, April 9 (Reuters) - Central European currencies
are set to firm further over the next 12 months even though the
Greek debt crisis clouds the short-term outlook, a monthly
Reuters poll of analysts showed on Friday.
The April 6-8 poll of 44 analysts was conducted before
Bulgaria dropped its plans to apply to join the pre-euro ERM-2
waiting room because of a larger than expected 2009 budget
deficit, triggering a fall in Central European currencies.
For story please click on []
Following are analyst comments on trends.
ON THE REGION:
ULRICH LEUCHTMANN, COMMERZBANK, FRANKFURT
"Problems in the euro zone, problems in Greece may weigh.
None of them (Central European currencies) are cheap any more."
ON THE CROWN:
HELENA HORSKA, RAIFFEISENBANK, PRAGUE
"We believe in the continuation of the fundamental long-term
appreciation trend of the CZK in the course of 2010 (in Q3 2010
even beyond 25.0). However, the CZK remains vulnerable to global
market sentiment and risk aversion.
"We still see the main risk to our forecast scenario in the
parliamentary elections in May as a stalemate in parliament
similar to the 2006 elections, (which) would postpone the
urgently necessary medium-term fiscal consolidation."
PETER POPLAWSKI, BGZ BANK, WARSAW
"The koruna continues to benefit from positive sentiment on
global markets. The potential for appreciation is somewhat
trimmed due to low domestic interest rates."
ON THE ZLOTY
PETER POPLAWSKI, BGZ BANK, WARSAW
"The zloty continues to benefit from a positive perception
of domestic fundamentals and inflow of foreign funds
(investments and EU funding).
"Investors have however trimmed expectations for prompt
monetary tightening, which should limit appreciating potential
of the Polish currency."
DOROTA STRAUCH, RAIFFEISEN BANK, WARSAW
"We expect the zloty to remain in the appreciating trend
with the support of a relatively good economic situation
(compared to both the CEE region and the euro zone).
"However, with the strongest influence coming from foreign
factors and risk appetite, some corrections upwards in the
EURPLN are probable."
ON THE FORINT
ZOLTAN AROKSZALLASI, ERSTE BANK, BUDAPEST
"We expect until the end of April for the HUF to depreciate
against the EUR to 270, given that the increased possibility of
further rate cuts decreases the interest rate differential
favouring the Hungarian currency."
BALINT HADA, QUAESTOR, BUDAPEST
"As we expected, all currencies in our region have shown
strength in the short term, but the sentiment seems to change.
"We expect that HUF will lose it's strength in the short
term as the Greek bailout uncertainty will have its new waves,
and we still remain pessimistic on a one-year horizon."
GYORGY BARCZA, K&H BANK, BUDAPEST
"The forint can weaken. The (public sector) budget can be
the domestic cause, while global recovery can be slow. Hungary's
budget deficit can rise to about 5.5 percent (of GDP) and the
market consensus is still only 4.7-4.8 percent.
"I think the forint will underperform, but the whole region
will not perform very well."
DAVID NEMETH, ING BANK, BUDAPEST
"Two negative issues are likely to arise (in the months)
after the elections: when and how stimulus measures will be
reversed in the EU and the U.S., and also the uncertainty over
what measures the new government will announce."
JANOS SAMU, CONCORDE, BUDAPEST
"I don't think that the forint will be an under-performer in
the region, though it can under-perform the zloty. Hungarian
debt yields are relatively high, the fundamental outlook for
growth is not bad, therefore investors will not have a reason to
hurt the forint (relative to other currencies in the region)."
SANDOR JOBBAGY, CIB BANK, BUDAPEST
"I expect moderate weakening already this month and that
already started in the past two days. The Greek situation and
the EURUSD will be the key mover (of currencies in the region)
and the forint can under-perform."
(Reporting by Sandor Peto; Editing by Susan Fenton)
