(Repeats story published on March 28)
* WHAT: March consumer prices
* WHEN: April 8, 0700 GMT
* Consumer prices seen rising 0.1 percent month-on-month,
cooling year-on-year rate to 7.3 percent.
By Mirka Krufova and Jan Lopatka
PRAGUE (Reuters) - Czech inflation probably began descending
from nine-year highs in March but still stayed at the top edge
of the central bank's forecast range, a Reuters poll showed on
Friday.
The poll of 13 analysts gave median forecasts for a 0.1
percent consumer price rise in March, which would put
year-on-year inflation at 7.3 percent.
That would be a drop from 7.5 percent in the previous two
months but still 0.9 percentage point above the midpoint of the
bank's forecast.
The central bank targets inflation within one percentage
point either side of 3 percent, and says price growth will drop
back to the preferred corridor by early next year as the impact
of one-off tax and regulated price hikes fade.
"Evidence of easing from the inflation spike will be crucial
for interest rates expectations," said David Marek, chief
analyst at Patria Finance.
"The way down from the peak should start in March and
alleviate worries about the persistence of the inflation shock."
The central bank has raised interest rates by 2 percentage
points to 3.75 percent since 2005, with the latest hike coming
in early February.
The bank voted 6-1 to leave rates unchanged on Wednesday,
but warned it saw unusually large risks on both the upside and
downside, making future rate decisions hard to predict and more
dependent than usual on the latest economic data signals.
The upside risks have been higher-than-expected inflation in
recent months and a possible seeping of higher basic costs into
other prices and charges.
Downside risks are the strong crown currency and weaker
growth in Europe.
Some analysts still expect the bank to raise interest rates
once more in this cycle, while others believe rates have peaked
and the next move will be down, perhaps in early 2009.
The crown hit all-time highs of 24.83 to the euro <EURCZK=>
on March 4.
It has since dipped back to 25.300, mainly after the finance
ministry and the central bank said last week they were in talks
on a deal to avoid putting extra appreciation pressure on the
crown via state foreign currency revenues.
The Reuters poll also showed a median prediction for a 12.8
billion crown foreign trade surplus in February. Trade data are
due out on April 7.
The median forecast for February industrial output called
for 8.0 percent year-on-year growth.
"The Czech economy depends a lot on the euro zone and recent
figures about industrial output, orders and business climate
brought evidence that the euro zone is coping with the U.S.
slowdown surprisingly well. So far, we can remain optimists
about the impact on the Czech economy," said Marek.
For a TABLE on forecasts, click on []
(Editing by Ruth Pitchford)
