PRAGUE, March 8 (Reuters) - Czech foreign trade posted a
13.1 billion crown ($699.8 million) surplus in January, bigger
than analyst forecasts in a Reuters poll, data showed on Monday.
Analysts said the data appeared to reflect a brightening
picture in the euro zone, which is the main destination for
imports from central and Eastern Europe. But they said they
would nevertheless keep a cautious outlook.
Exports rose 9.1 percent year-on-year, the second rise in
two months. Imports rose by 3.5 percent, the first gain since
September 2008.
The full-year 2009 trade balance was revised to a 152
billion crown surplus, down from a previously estimated 153.2
billion surplus, the statistics office said.
Data also showed the jobless rate rose to 9.9 percent of the
workforce in February, from 9.8 percent a month erlier, the
highest level since the 10 percent hit in March 2004. Analysts
in a Reuters poll saw unemployment at 10.0 percent.
The Czech crown <EURCZK=> pulled back from a three month
high hit before the data, dropping to 25.625 per euro from
25.600 in choppy trade.
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KEY POINTS:
FOREIGN TRADE
(in bln CZK) Jan Dec Jan fcast
balance 13.13 2.77 (2.81) 10.0
(nominal y/y change in pct)
exports 9.1 n/a (4.8) +5.5
imports 3.5 n/a (-2.6) +1.5
CZECH UNEMPLOYMENT Feb Jan Feb forecast
pct of workforce 9.9 9.8 10.0
Details of January foreign trade data...........[]
Details of February jobless data................[]
COMMENTARY:
DAVID MAREK, CHIEF ECONOMIST, PATRIA FINANCE
"We begin this week on a positive note with both data
surprising positively. I think it is connected to a slight
recovery in European economies. Last week we saw positive data
from industrial orders in Germany."
"But I would be cautious about the speed of recovery in the
Czech Republic. Data connected to domestic demand should be less
optimistic. On the other hand, industrial output and foreign
trade, which are exposed to developments abroad, should be more
optimistic. Today's foreign trade release supports this view."
- According to seasonally-adjusted preliminary data, exports
rose 7.2 percent in January from December, while imports grew
7.8 percent month-on-month.
- In euro terms, exports rose 13.4 percent and imports
increased 7.6 percent year-on-year in January.
- The balance showed an annual improvement by 9.2 billion
crowns.
- The improvement was mainly due a widening surplus in trade
with machines and cars. Industrial consumer good trade swung to
a surplus.
- Exports of cars and machinery rose 12.9 percent
year-on-year. Imports in that sector also grew 7.0 percent.
BACKGROUND:
- Market expectations before release []
- Slovak Dec trade figures []
- Report on last Czech c.bank rate decision......[]
[] [] []
- For further details on December foreign trade and other past
data, Reuters 3000 Xtra users can click on the Czech Statistical
Bureau's website:
http://www.czso.cz/eng/csu.nsf/kalendar/2004-vzo
- For LIVE Czech economic data releases, click on <ECONCZ>
- Instant Views on other Czech data click on []
- Overview of Czech macroeconomic indicators []
- Key data releases in central Europe []
- For Czech money markets data click on <CZKVIEW>
- Czech money guide <CZK/1>
- Czech benchmark state bond prices <0#CZBMK=>
- Czech forward money market rates <CZKFRA>
(Reporting by Jana Mlcochova; editing by Michael Winfrey)
