PRAGUE, March 8 (Reuters) - Czech foreign trade posted a
bigger-than-expected 13.1 billion crown ($699.8 million) surplus
in January, which analysts said was welcome news after the
export-heavy EU member had a fourth quarter contraction.
Analysts said the data appeared to reflect a brightening
picture in the euro zone, which is the main destination for
imports from central and Eastern Europe.
But they said they would still keep a cautious outlook and
expected headwinds due to the end of car scrapping subsidies in
more developed EU member states that have fuelled production.
Exports rose 9.1 percent year-on-year, the second rise in
two months. Imports rose by 3.5 percent, the first gain since
September 2008.
The full-year 2009 trade balance was revised to a 152
billion crown surplus, down from a previously estimated 153.2
billion surplus, the statistics office said.
Data also showed the jobless rate rose to 9.9 percent of the
workforce in February, from 9.8 percent a month earlier, the
highest level since the 10 percent hit in March 2004. Analysts
in a Reuters poll saw unemployment at 10.0 percent.
The Czech crown <EURCZK=> pulled back from a three month
high hit before the data, dropping to 25.625 per euro from
25.600 in choppy trade.
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KEY POINTS:
FOREIGN TRADE
(in bln CZK) Jan Dec Jan fcast
balance 13.13 2.77 (2.81) 10.0
(nominal y/y change in pct)
exports 9.1 n/a (4.8) +5.5
imports 3.5 n/a (-2.6) +1.5
CZECH UNEMPLOYMENT Feb Jan Feb forecast
pct of workforce 9.9 9.8 10.0
Details of January foreign trade data...........[]
Details of February jobless data................[]
DETAILS:
- According to seasonally-adjusted preliminary data, exports
rose 7.2 percent in January from December, while imports grew
7.8 percent month-on-month.
- In euro terms, exports rose 13.4 percent and imports
increased 7.6 percent year-on-year in January.
- The balance showed an annual improvement by 9.2 billion
crowns.
- The improvement was mainly due a widening surplus in trade
with machines and cars. Industrial consumer good trade swung to
a surplus.
- Exports of cars and machinery rose 12.9 percent
year-on-year. Imports in that sector also grew 7.0 percent.
COMMENTARY:
JAROSLVA VOMASTEK, INDUSTRY AND TRADE MINISTRY, HEAD OF
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS DEPT.
"The January foreign trade results confirm the trend started
in November last year. But as for the upcoming development, it
will be crucial how the situation abroad, with our foreign
partners, develops."
"Since most of the production of Czech automotive companies
is exported, the pace of a recovery in the European economy will
be crucial."
"Big companies are signalling that there are new trade and
investment opportunities in front of them... We must focus on
diversification of our export portfolio... and we must add new
markets to those that we already have."
RADOMIR JAC, CHIEF ANALYST, GENERALI PPF ASSET MANAGMENT
"Good news, and not only because the trade surplus was
somewhat higher than expected. The major positive finding comes
from stronger than expected performance of both exports and
imports. Especially, the outperformance of both exports and
imports of machinery and transport equipment is pleasing."
"The nice reading on exports is also well in line with a
much stronger than expected increase in German industrial
orders, released on Friday."
"Overall, although we must keep in mind that Czech industry,
particularly car producers, will face headwinds from the end of
car scrapping subsidy schemes in their important export
destinations. The January results are simply better than
expected."
"Good news for the Czech crown and warming information after
disappointing preliminary result of the fourth quarter (2009)
GDP."
DAVID MAREK, CHIEF ECONOMIST, PATRIA FINANCE
"We begin this week on a positive note with both data
surprising positively. I think it is connected to a slight
recovery in European economies. Last week we saw positive data
from industrial orders in Germany."
"But I would be cautious about the speed of recovery in the
Czech Republic. Data connected to domestic demand should be less
optimistic. On the other hand, industrial output and foreign
trade, which are exposed to developments abroad, should be more
optimistic. Today's foreign trade release supports this view."
JAROMIR SINDEL, CHIEF ECONOMIST, CITIBANK
"The data is significantly better (than expected) mainly in
the month on month comparison, 7 percent in exports is indeed a
significant one."
"It may reflect an improvement that may be indicated in the
German industrial production."
"Unemployment is in line with expectations and growth in the
rate will continue; we expect a turnaround in the fourth quarter
or in the first quarter next year."
PETR DUFEK, ANALYST, CSOB
"(Unemployment) is a better result than I thought and
definitely positive in the given situation. The number of those
looking for work in February was five times lower than in the
same month a year earlier."
"The biggest wave of layoffs has passed, so only seasonal
developments will influence unemployment. Therefore, a further
fall in unemployment can be expected to below 9.5 percent in the
coming months thanks to seasonal work."
"Nevertheless, for a complete improvement in the conditions
on the Czech labour market, we're still going to have to wait
until economic growth reaches three percent, which could return
the labour market to a positive trend."
BACKGROUND:
- Market expectations before release []
- Slovak Dec trade figures []
- Report on last Czech c.bank rate decision......[]
[] [] []
- For further details on December foreign trade and other past
data, Reuters 3000 Xtra users can click on the Czech Statistical
Bureau's website:
http://www.czso.cz/eng/csu.nsf/kalendar/2004-vzo
- For LIVE Czech economic data releases, click on <ECONCZ>
- Instant Views on other Czech data click on []
- Overview of Czech macroeconomic indicators []
- Key data releases in central Europe []
- For Czech money markets data click on <CZKVIEW>
- Czech money guide <CZK/1>
- Czech benchmark state bond prices <0#CZBMK=>
- Czech forward money market rates <CZKFRA>
(Reporting by Jana Mlcochova; editing by Michael Winfrey)
