*Zloty seen gaining 9 pct in 12 months, crown 5 pct
*Crown seen at 24.5/euro in 12 months (prev. fcast 24.9)
*Leu to firm 3 pct to 4.07/euro (prev. fcast 4.0)
By Sandor Peto
BUDAPEST, June 3 (Reuters) - Central European currencies,
are seen posting strong gains over the next 6-12 months, led by
the zloty, bouncing back after the past weeks' falls caused by
the euro zone debt crisis, a Reuters poll of analysts showed on
Thursday.
The region's main currencies were bolstered by expectations
for economic recovery in the first quarter, but have retreated
by up to 6.6 percent against the euro from their 2010 peaks.
The May 31-June 2 poll of 38 analysts showed the zloty
<EURPLN=> and the crown <EURCZK=> could firm well beyond those
peaks in the next 12 months, while the forint <EURHUF=> and the
leu <EURRON=> could regain most of the ground lost since then.
According to the median forecast, the zloty is expected to
gain as much as 9 percent from Wednesday's close to 3.75 versus
the euro -- an unchanged forecast from a month ago -- after
shedding more than 6 percent since its 2010 highs hit in April.
Central Europe is reliant on exports to the euro zone where
the debt crisis may hamper economic recovery, but Poland is
shielded by a strong domestic economy and it expects to maintain
3 percent annual growth in the second quarter. []
"The Polish economy has come out of the crisis relatively
robust," said Ulrich Leuchtmann, currency strategist at
Commerzbank in Frankfurt.
"The problem of the euro zone economy which will recover
very slowly is pronounced in the Czech economy, the same for the
Hungarian economy and less for Poland," he added.
The poll projects that the Czech crown, which has lost
almost 3 percent since the middle of April, will strengthen some
5 percent in the next 12 months to 24.5 versus the euro, a
firmer level than 24.9 forecast a month ago.
Analysts said the election victory of Czech centre-right
parties last week could buoy the crown which can now strengthen
to 25.56 by the end of June and to 25.3 in 3 months.
"If the new government gains the majority in the parliament
and prepares the fiscal reform strategy, the (credit) rating of
the Czech Republic might even improve," said Helena Horska of
Raiffeisenbank in Prague. []
FORINT, LEU SEEN LAGGING
Currency gains will, however, be limited in the short term
and market volatility can remain high as Europe struggles to end
the debt crisis in the euro zone, the analysts said.
Debt and deficit levels in Central Europe are lower than in
the euro zone peripheries, but currencies with weaker economic
fundamentals -- the forint and the leu -- can underperform, even
though yields on their state debt are well above regional peers.
The forint is expected to firm almost 5 percent over the
next year to 262.85 against the euro, but that level would be
still slightly weaker than this year's highs at 260.93.
The country's new government has said that the budget
deficit could be well above the target this year, but has not
presented a clear plan to counter this since winning elections
by a landslide in April. []
"That's a growing risk," said Zoltan Arokszallasi of Erste.
Romania's government also faces a tough ride as it presents
austerity measures agreed with international lenders to
parliament. []
Analysts said the Romanian central bank could continue to
intervene in the market if the leu weakens. The currency is
expected to firm almost 3 percent in the next 12 months to 4.07
to the euro, a weaker level than 4.0 forecast a month ago.
Some analysts said Poland's central bank was also ready to
defend the zloty, and may hike interest rates later this year.
Hungary's central bank has lent additional support to the
forint when on Monday it kept its base rate on hold at 5.25
percent after a streak of rate cuts since July.[]
"The dynamic of the interest rates (regionally) will be
supportive for Hungary as its interest rates will stay high
relative to others," said Murat Toprak of Societe Generale.
For data please click on <CEEFXPOLL01>
Central European fx polls: <CEEU/POLL>
For more analyst comments on CEE currencies please click on
[]
(Reporting by Sandor Peto/Marton Dunai/Krisztina Than;
Editing by Toby Chopra)
