* Asian shares gain towards 2009 high on global econ data
* Momentum slows as focus shifts towards recovery debate
* Oil below $73/barrel on weaker dollar, profit-taking
* Dollar edges up in flat currency markets
By Rafael Nam
HONG KONG, June 12 (Reuters) - Gains in Chinese industrial
output and rising U.S. retail sales lifted Asian shares towards
new highs for the year on Friday, but some analysts are warning
the recent gains are looking overdone.
Oil fell below $73 following a three-day rally to its
highest level since mid-October on Thursday, while the
safe-haven dollar edged higher after the previous session's
falls. Broader currency markets were led by short-term moves
ahead of the weekend and a meeting of the Group of Eight (G8)
finance ministers.
The strong shift toward riskier assets over the past few
months has been anchored by the improving global economic
prospects, especially in the United States and China.
However, the momentum of that move is showing signs of
slowing, and wary investors will need more evidence of an
actual recovery or signs that corporate profits are improving
to continue the push towards risk, analysts said.
"Buyers have returned and sentiment is good," said Koichi
Ogawa, chief portfolio manager at Daiwa SB Investments in
Japan.
"But the 'green shoots' rally has really about reached its
limits, and we'll need some signs of improving company earnings
such as upward forecast revisions, perhaps in a month or so, to
really make more gains. For a while, expect consolidation."
The MSCI index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan
<.MIAPJ0000PUS> rose 0.2 percent as of 0600 GMT, after earlier
in the day rising to just under a 2009 high hit last week that
was its best level since late September.
The index has surged around 65 percent from its March bear
market low and is up 35 percent for the year, but struggled
over the last two weeks as investors worried demand was still
too weak and feared higher borrowing costs for consumers and
businesses may hold back a U.S. recovery.
The MSCI gauge still remains some 43 percent below a record
high it hit on November 2007.
Japan's Nikkei average <> rose 1.6 percent after
powering to its highest level since Oct 7, taking its gains to
more than 40 percent since early March.
The levels indicate in part a return to normalcy nine
months after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in mid-September
sent global financial markets into a nosedive.
Data on Friday showed China's annual industrial output
growth rebounded by a stronger-than-expected 8.9 percent in
May, in line with Chinese media articles on Wednesday that had
reported the data ahead of the official release.
[]
The improving prospects -- with data also showing stronger
expansion in credit and consumer spending -- comes as reports
indicate the U.S. economy may be nearing its bottom.
[]
U.S. retail sales rose in May for the first time in three
months, while the number of workers filing new claims for
jobless benefits last week fell to the lowest since January.
[]
A fall in benchmark U.S. Treasury yields following a
well-received auction of 30-year notes also helped support
broader sentiment, easing concerns about rising borrowing
costs. Interest rates on many loans and mortgages are
benchmarked to government bond yields.
Hong Kong's main index <> advanced more than 1 percent,
while markets in South Korea <> and Australia <>
posted more modest gains.
But indexes in Shanghai <> and Taiwan <> fell
more than 1 percent each.
Among individual gainers, OZ Minerals <OZL.AX> surged 13.5
percent in its resumption of trade after shareholders of the
debt-laden miner on Thursday approved a sale of most of the
company's assets to China's state-owned MinMetals for about
$1.4 billion.[]
RECOVERY PROSPECTS KEY
With investors increasingly confident that the world
economy is at or near a bottom, the debate has shifted toward
how any recovery would take shape amid contradictory signals
and conflicting forecasts.
The International Monetary Fund has raised its global
growth estimates for 2010, a G8 source who has seen the figures
told Reuters, thought still confirmed its forecast for a 1.3
percent contraction this year. []
Others expect a tougher 2009. World Bank President Robert
Zoellick said the world economy would shrink by nearly 3
percent this year, worse than its previous estimate.
[]
Misjudging the health of the economy could prove costly.
Oil prices have surged on the prospects that demand will prove
better than expected this year and the International Energy
Agency on Thursday raised its demand forecasts. []
The oil forecast helped send U.S. crude to an intraday high
of $73.23 on Thursday that marked the highest since Oct. 21,
though oil prices <CLc1> had fallen 34 cents to $72.33 on
Friday as some investors locked in profits.
Markets are divided over what to make of the recent spurt
in prices. Some traders believe it reflects stronger business
activity, reinforcing the recovery theme, while others worry
that a spike in fuel prices could slow or derail a rebound from
the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression.
"The downward movement is the usual two steps forward, one
step back. Some market players may be a bit cautious about oil
prices being a little overvalued," Ben Westmore, a commodities
analyst at National Australia Bank, said.
The dollar steadied after its falls on Thursday with the
dollar index <.DXY>, a gauge of the greenback's performance
against six other major currencies, up just 0.1 percent.
