Reuters has surveyed 34 emerging market strategists for
their views on when the newest members of the European Union are
likely to adopt the euro and when the EU may admit more new
members.
Following is a summary of the results of the survey, taken
January 15-24, which can also be found on <EMUPOLL30>.
For analysis of the results, double-click on
[] [].
1. In what year do you expect these countries to enter
Europe's monetary union (ie formally adopt the euro)?
Median Mean Mode Max Min F'casts
Bulgaria 2013 2013 2013 2018 2011 25
Czech R 2013 2013 2012 2015 2011 28
Estonia 2012 2012 2012 2014 2010 24
Hungary 2014 2013 2014 2015 2011 26
Latvia 2013 2013 2013 2015 2010 25
Lithuania 2012 2012 2012 2014 2010 24
Poland 2013 2013 2012 2016 2012 27
Romania 2015 2015 2015 2018 2012 25
Slovakia 2009 2009 2009 2012 2009 26
2. Which ERM-2 countries do you expect to revalue/devalue
their currencies in the next 12 months?
NO CHANGE REVALUE DEVALUE
Bulgaria 13 0 2
Czech R 7 6 0
Estonia 15 0 1
Hungary 9 1 3
Latvia 15 0 2
Lithuania 16 0 1
Poland 10 2 2
Romania 9 0 4
Slovakia 8 11 0
3. Which of the following are the biggest hurdles faced by
EU countries on the road to euro adoption: controlling
inflation, controlling budget deficits, reducing public debt,
stabilising domestic currencies?
(table shows count, some economists selected more than one)
Control Control budget Cut public Stabilise
inflation deficits debt currencies
Bulgaria 23 1 0 2
Czech R 12 20 1 1
Estonia 23 0 0 1
Hungary 19 24 15 3
Latvia 25 1 0 7
Lithuania 24 1 0 1
Poland 13 20 3 1
Romania 20 12 1 10
Slovakia 15 9 0 5
4. In what year do you expect these currencies to enter the
EU's Exchange Rate Mechanism?
Median Mean Mode Max Min F'casts
Polish zloty 2010 2010 2010 2014 2009 25
Hungarian forint 2011 2011 2011 2013 2009 23
Czech koruna 2010 2010 2010 2013 2009 24
Romanian leu 2012 2012 2012 2015 2010 22
Bulgarian lev 2010 2011 2009 2014 2009 20
5. In what year will these countries join the EU?
Median Mean Mode Max Min F'casts
Croatia 2011 2011 2010 2014 2009 23
Turkey 2019 2018 2020 2020 2015 18
Macedonia 2015 2015 2015 2020 2012 22
Serbia 2015 2016 2015 2020 2012 19
Bosnia 2016 2016 2015 2021 2013 20
Montenegro 2015 2015 2015 2020 2012 21
Albania 2015 2017 2015 2021 2014 19
6a. What do you think is the percentage likelihood that the
EU will completely suspend negotiations with Turkey before they
are finished?
The median of 23 numeric forecasts was 20 pct. The range was
2 to 50 pct. One participant said Turkey will never join the
EU.
6b. What do you think is the percentage likelihood that
Turkey pulls out of the membership talks before they are
complete?
The median of 23 forecasts was 25 percent. The range was 0
to 50 percent.
Contributors to the survey were:
4Cast; Allianz Dresdner; Bank of Cyprus; Bankhaus Metzler;
Bayern LB; BNP Paribas; CA-IB; Ceska Sporitelna; Citi; CSOB;
Deutsche Bank; ESRI; Fitch Ratings; Global Insight;
Handelsbanken; Helaba; ING Financial Markets; KBC Asset Mgt;
Kingston University; Komercni banka; Kopint-Tarki;
Latvian Inst of Int. Affairs; Landesbank Berlin AG;
Money Mkt Brokers; National Bank of Greece; Natixis; NIESR;
Nordea; Oppenheim Research; Raiffeisen Bank Hungary;
Standard & Poor's; Tera Brokers; UBS; Unicredit.
(Factbox compiled by Bangalore Polling Unit; Editing by Ruth
Pitchford)
