* Q4 revenue $252 million above forecast $239.7 mln
* Beats FY revenue and EBITDA guidance
* Sees H2 recovery in TV ad spend after flat H1
* Shares rise 2 percent
(Adds analyst, company comment, shares)
By Jason Hovet
PRAGUE, Feb 24 (Reuters) - Revenue at Central European Media
Enterprises (CME) <CETV.O> fell 14 percent in the fourth
quarter, but less than expected, as advertising was stuck in a
slump but the TV broadcaster forecast a recovery this year.
CME said on Wednesday ad spending in its central and eastern
European markets fell 30 percent last year during the economic
downturn, and would likely stay flat in the first half of 2010
before rebounding in the second half. []
Fourth-quarter revenue fell to $252 million, beating a
forecast for $239.7 million in a Reuters poll. []
Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation
(EBITDA) fell 45 percent to $44.1 million, above forecast. CME
posted a net loss of $55.3 million.
The group's Prague shares closed 2 percent up on the day
<>. On the Nasdaq they were up 0.2 percent.
Analysts said some investors might be surprised by the
first-half outlook. Ceska Sporitelna analyst Vaclav Kminek said,
though, the view had already mostly been soaked in by the
market.
"It is obvious that the TV ad market already bottomed out,
while the beginning of the recovery will continue in the first
half, slightly longer than CME and the market expected," he
said.
"CME's prospects are solid in the medium term, as it is now
a dominant player in all of its markets. We see the news as
neutral," Kminek added.
CME said in October it expected a 2-6 percent rebound in ad
spending this year, an outlook it referred back to on Wednesday.
For the full year, CME had revenue of $714 million and
EBITDA of $75 million, marginally above October guidance.
The group, partially owned by Time Warner <TWX.N> and U.S.
investor Ronal Lauder, had television stations in seven markets
before agreeing a sale of Ukrainian operations in January.
Central European economies fell into deep contraction last
year and are seen making only modest recoveries this year as
analysts say domestic demand will likely stay weak.
SEES RECOVERY IN H2
CME chief executive Adrian Sarbu said economic recovery will
help TV ad markets to rebound.
"The normal pace of recovery is first with GDP, consumption
and then advertising," he told an analyst call.
"We expect these steps to happen in all our markets under
different timings in 2010, but we see this happening in the
second half of the year."
Earnings from its Czech and Romanian operations make up the
bulk of profit. Last week, it agreed to buy Bulgarian station
bTV for $400 million from News Corporation <NWSA.O> as part of
expansion plans there. []
Analysts had expected CME to outline more of its plans for
Bulgaria, its smallest market thus far. However, management
declined to comment until the deal closed.
CME shares have jumped almost 260 percent in Prague in the
past 12 months, versus a 76 percent rise in the Prague index
<>.
(Reporting by Jason Hovet; Editing by Dan Lalor)
