PRAGUE, May 19 (Reuters) - The Czech left-wing Social Democrats widened
their lead over the rightist Civic Democrats, a poll showed on Wednesday, but
gains by other centre-right parties kept the outcome of a May 28-29 election
highly uncertain.
The poll by the CVVM agency showed support for the Social Democrats edged
half a point higher to 30.5 percent, while backing for the Civic Democrats
dropped 3.5 points to 19 percent.
But the country's three centre- and right-wing parties polled for a combined
44.5 percent of the vote, while the Social Democrats and the far-left Communists
polled at 43.5 percent, a much smaller difference than the margin of error in
the poll.
The main scenarios for the make-up of the next cabinet include a Social
Democrat-led cabinet with smaller centre-right parties, a Social Democrat-led
minority cabinet supported by the Communists, a Civic Democrat-led cabinet with
centrist and right-wing parties, and a grand coalition of the Social and Civic
Democrats.
The Social Democrats refuse forming a coalition with the Communists but an
overall left victory would give them a strong hand in any coalition talks with
other parties, and would open the possibility of using tacit support from the
Communists for a minority Social Democrat cabinet.
If the result is inconclusive, it may take weeks or months to form a
government, which could affect budget preparations for 2011.
The current caretaker cabinet led by Jan Fischer will stay in office until
the new administration takes over.
The country needs a workable cabinet to tackle the budget deficit and start
long-neglected reforms of the pension and health systems to avoid accumulation
of fiscal imbalances in the future.
DATE AGENCY ODS CSSD KSCM TOP09 KDU-CSL Greens VV SPOZ
May 19/10 CVVM 19.0 30.5 13.0 14.0 3.5 4.5 11.5 2.0
May 17/10 STEM 18.7 27.0 11.8 9.2 3.9 3.1 8.9 2.3
May 12/10 Factum 21.7 27.5 13.9 11.1 5.2 2.9 11.0 3.2
May 10/10 Median 19.0 26.2 13.3 10.7 7.5 3.5 7.6 6.8
April 21/10 CVVM 22.5 30.0 13.0 11.5 4.0 4.0 9.0 3.0
April 16/10 STEM 18.6 27.8 9.9 9.3 4.9 3.2 8.1 3.1
April 14/10 Factum 22.3 29.5 13.9 11.6 5.5 2.6 8.9 -
April 13/10 Median 21.2 27.0 16.8 7.5 7.4 4.8 4.3 3.0
March 24/10 Factum 22.5 28.7 13.9 11.1 5.8 3.4 9.2 -
March 17/10 CVVM 25.5 32.0 12.0 10.0 4.5 4.5 7.0 3.0
March 16/10 STEM 20.0 27.9 11.3 7.7 4.8 3.8 6.2 3.6
Feb 2010 Median 20.7 34.5 13.9 9.6 5.5 4.8 5.2 -
Feb 24/10 Factum 23.8 27.9 14.3 13.0 6.4 3.7 5.7 -
Feb 19/10 CVVM 20.5 33.0 14.5 12.5 5.0 5.0 6.0 2.0
Feb 18/10 STEM 23.2 28.6 11.7 9.1 4.3 2.7 4.7 2.0
Jan 2010 Median 27.8 32.0 12.8 9.3 7.4 4.3 2.4 -
Jan 31/10 Factum 25.5 31.8 13.3 11.4 6.6 2.0 3.8 -
Jan 27/10 CVVM 25.5 28.0 12.0 13.0 7.0 6.0 4.0 1.5
Jan 19/10 STEM 20.9 28.7 10.9 8.4 4.2 4.0 3.9 -
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June 2006 election 35.4 32.3 12.8 - 7.2 6.3 - -
NOTE. The CVVM poll was conducted between May 3 and May 10among 1,016
Czechs.
The parties are:
- Civic Democratic Party (ODS) - right, liberal-conservative
- The Czech Social Democratic Party (CSSD) - left
- The Communist Party of Bohemia and Moravia (KSCM) - far left
- TOP09 - conservative, to the right of ODS
- Christian Democratic Union-Czechoslovak People's Party (KDU-CSL) - centrist
- The Greens - environmentalists, centrist
- Public Affairs (VV) - new centrist party
- People's Rights party (SPOZ) - centre-left, set up by former leftist PM
Zeman, says can support right or left government
Pollsters: The CVVM, Median and Factum results are based on a model
predicting gains at the ballot box, excluding those not willing to vote and
undecided.
STEM results are direct voter preferences, and include replies from all
respondents including those not willing to vote. Parties should thus win a
larger than indicated share of the vote at the election. This is relevant mainly
for small parties, which may cross the 5 percent threshold to win seats even if
direct voter preferences show them below the minimum level.
(Reporting by Jan Lopatka; Editing by Ron Askew)
