BRATISLAVA, March 4 (Reuters) - A rise in foreign demand
helped push the Slovak economy into growth of 2.0 percent versus
the previous quarter in the last three months of 2009, from 1.6
percent in the third quarter, data showed on Thursday.
Statistics Office said a fall in exports decelerated to a
5.2 percent slide in the fourth quarter, a steep slowdown from
the 15.0 percent fall in the previous three months and much
better than the 25.2 percent slump in the first quarter of 2009.
Even though exports declined, their net contribution to
growth was positive because imports fell twice as much.
The heavily export-reliant economy slowed its decline on the
year-on-year basis and fell by 2.6 percent from October to
December, compared with a 4.9 percent contraction in the
previous three months.
For 2009 as a whole, the economy shrank 4.7 percent, the
Statistics Office said, erasing much of its 6.2 percent growth
from 2008, and well down from the record 10.6 percent rise in
2007.
Analysts expect improving foreign demand, tied to a gradual
but patchy recovery in the euro zone, and a revival of
investment activity, as key growth drivers for 2010. However
they say domestic demand will remain weak due to a high jobless
rate.
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KEY POINTS
SLOVAK REAL GDP Q4/09 Q3/09 Q4/08 FY/09
(pct change yr/yr) -2.6 -4.9 +1.6 -4.7
(pct change q/q) +2.0 +1.6
(for full table pls see ... [])
COMMENTS:
BORIS FOJTIK, ANALYST, TATRA BANKA
"Foreign demand was the clear and key driver in the fourth
quarter. This benefits from lower import needs also related to
lower cost of oil."
"From now on we should see positive growth figures on the
year. The quarter-on-quarter data could, however, show a decline
in the first quarter."
"As for this year, foreign demand will remain the economy's
key driver. Reviving investment activity, driven by large
construction projects such as highways building, will also back
the growth."
MARIA VALACHYOVA, SENIOR ANALYST, SLOVENSKA SPORITELNA
"The structure was, in general, as we've expected. Domestic
demand was negative, which corresponds with the labour market
situation and weak retail sales."
"Foreign demand was the key driver in the fourth quarter
with a positive 4.5 percent contribution to growth, while
domestic demand had a negative contribution of 6.4 percent."
"The key driver of the economy, this year, will be the
restocking process's recovery and also an improvement in fixed
investments."
"The economy will return to growth, on the year-on-year
basis in the next quarter. The pace of the growth will, however,
ease over the coming quarters."
BACKGROUND
- Slovakia, a euro zone member since last January, has been hit
by the global economic downturn as demand for its exports fades
in its main western markets.
- The country's economic activity has been slowing from record
growth rates seen in 2007, when it posted 13.5 percent GDP
growth in the fourth quarter and 10.6 percent for the year.
- The full-year 2008 GDP growth was 6.2 percent.
- The central bank expected the economy to rise by 3.1 percent
this year. It is slightly more optimistic than the Finance
Ministry, with its forecast of a 2.8 percent GDP growth.
LINKS:
- For further details on past data, Reuters 3000 Xtra users can
click on the Slovak Statistics Office's website:
http://wwww.statistics.sk/webdata/english/index2_a.htm
- For LIVE Slovak economic data releases, click on......<ECONSK>
- Schedule of upcoming indicator releases............<SK/ECON09>
- Summary of short-term economic data forecasts......<SK/ECON04>
- Slovak benchmark state bond prices .................<0#SKBMK=>
- Slovak forward money market rates ....................<SKKFRA>
(Reporting by Martin Santa)
