PRAGUE, Feb 11 (Reuters) - Czech industrial output rose 1.8
percent year-on-year in December, final data showed on Thursday,
after a preliminary estimate had showed slightly faster growth.
The December growth, the first in more than a year, followed
a 0.1 percent year-on-year contraction in November, the Czech
statistics bureau said on Thursday.
A working day-adjusted data showed a year-on-year drop of
0.6 percent. Seasonally adjusted output fell 0.4 percent
month-on-month.
The annual growth was mainly due to an increase in the
production of machinery and metal products as well as chemicals.
****************************************************************
KEY POINTS:
(y/y change in pct) Dec Nov Dec forecast
Industrial output 1.8 -0.1 1.3
Industrial sales -0.8 -3.1 n/a
(Full table of data............................[])
DETAILS:
- Overall new orders rose 12.4 percent year-on-year, and new
orders from abroad increased by 17.0 percent.
- Orders in the vehicle making sector rose by 11.0 percent.
- Construction output, measured by a separate index, rose 3.5
percent year-on-year in December.
COMMENTARY:
PETR DUFEK, ANALYST, CSOB:
"I am concerned about what comes next. The low comparative
base from the last year will have an effect, but demand abroad
remains fragile. Mainly in the automotive industry, which will
not avoid stoppages in some cases. Foreign orders are developing
favourably, but the question is how long will it last."
JAN VEJMELEK, HEAD OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH, KOMERCNI BANKA
"The low statistics basis has a favourable effect, but
overall, it is hard to find signs of a recovery in the sector."
"The best result since September 2008 is due to the effect
of the scrap subsidy abroad, which helped the car industry."
"But the car production sector means the biggest risk for
the coming months. Money for the scrap subsidy has run out,
which has already showed in weaker German data."
JAROSLAV VOMASTEK, DIRECTOR, ECONOMIC ANALYSIS DEPT,
INDUSTRY MINISTRY
"I see risks to the future development in the timing of an
end of stimulus programmes adopted by governments of our trade
partners.
"Further potential danger for economic growth comes from
excessive regulation, and obviously growing unemployment."
VOJTECH BENDA, SENIOR EONOMIST, ING, PRAGUE
"It is not a major revision. It only shows that industry
stabilized in December. The positive news is an outlook for
growth in domestic and foreign orders, continuing growth in
exports in Germany... which signals beneficial conditions fo the
Czech industry."
"The low comparative base with which the industry is
entering this year means that we can expect a relatively fast
growth due to recovery in inventories in the first months of the
year."
"The second half of the year is unclear because it is
unclear how robust and sustainable a recovery in the euro zone
will be."
MARKET REACTION:
Crown shows no visible reaction to the data, trading at
26.041 to the euro <EURCZK=> from 26.05 ahead of the data.
BACKGROUND:
- December foreign trade figures.................[]
- Report on last Czech c.bank rate decision......[]
[] [] []
LINKS:
- For further details on December output and sales numbers and
past data, Reuters 3000 Xtra users can click on the Czech
Statistical Bureau's Website:
http://www.czso.cz/eng/csu.nsf/kalendar/2004-pru
- For LIVE Czech economic data releases, click on <ECONCZ>
- Instant Views on other Czech data []
- Overview of Czech macroeconomic indicators []
- Key data releases in central Europe []
- For Czech money markets data click on <CZKVIEW>
- Czech money guide <CZK/1>
- Czech benchmark state bond prices <0#CZBMK=>
- Czech forward money market rates <CZKFRA>
(Reporting by Jana Mlcochova, editing by Jan Lopatka)
