(Repeats story published late on Wednesday)
* Sober realism replaces Orange Revolution euphoria
* Reliability in question after clashes with Moscow over gas
* EU losing influence to Russia
By Gareth Jones
WARSAW, Feb 3 (Reuters) - East Europeans who hailed Ukraine
as a beacon of freedom during its peaceful Orange Revolution
five years ago see it today as an economic basket case unlikely
to join the European Union for a generation, if ever.
Disputes over unpaid gas bills, economic crisis and
squabbling politicians have tarnished Ukraine's image even among
its most ardent supporters in Poland and the Baltic states who
had hoped it might follow their path into the EU and NATO.
The euphoria of 2004-05 has given way to sober realism or
plain indifference among Poles, Czechs and others as Ukraine
prepares to elect a successor on Sunday to Viktor Yushchenko,
the pro-European leader swept to power by the Orange protests.
Ukrainians will elect either his personal rival and former
co-leader of the Orange Revolution, Yulia Tymoshenko, or Viktor
Yanukovich, whose rigged victory in 2004, backed by Moscow, led
to the successful protests.
"There is a kind of 'Ukraine fatigue' (in the EU's eastern
wing). Expectations for the election are not high," said Jan
Pieklo, head of the Polish-Ukrainian Cooperation Foundation.
"Polish advisers worked for Yushchenko, laws were drawn up
but never implemented ... Ukraine is now on the brink of
bankruptcy. Even if all now went well, realistically it would
take Ukraine 20 years to reach Polish levels of development."
It is a far cry from the winter of 2004 when Poles, Balts
and others held rallies and vigils to show solidarity with their
neighbours in the large former Soviet republic.
Lech Walesa of Poland and the Czech Republic's Vaclav Havel,
architects of their own countries' escape from Moscow's orbit in
1989, flew to Kiev to encourage Yushchenko's supporters and
camped out in subzero temperatures. The presidents of Poland and
Lithuania helped broker a peace deal between the rival camps.
NOT ENOUGH CARROTS
Fast-forward to 2010 and Ukraine is still not a candidate
for EU membership. Russia, Kiev's Soviet-era overlord, has made
clear it will not accept Ukraine or Georgia joining NATO.
Some east Europeans say the EU could have done more to help.
"The EU did not give Ukraine enough carrots after the Orange
Revolution. We could have said 'one day Ukraine will become an
EU member' but Germany and France took a very defensive position
and we lost momentum," said Pieklo.
Some ordinary citizens in the new EU states are less
charitable about an eastern neighbour they see as shambolic.
"I don't believe Ukrainians belong in the European Union ...
There is a huge difference in mentality and culture between them
and EU member states that I don't think can be overlooked," said
Nadina Ivanov, 23, a public relations worker in Bucharest.
Kiev's reputation as a reliable partner took a knock because
of frequent clashes with Moscow over its unpaid gas bills which
led to disrupted supplies, in mid-winter, to eastern EU member
states reliant on pipelines crossing Ukraine's territory.
Ukraine's economy shrank by up to 15 percent in 2009 as its
steel exports plummeted. The International Monetary Fund has
suspended its $16.4 billion bailout after the president and
parliament broke a pledge to keep spending under control.
Yet Ukraine, a country of 46 million people strategically
located between Russia and the EU, still matters to its
neighbours.
Kiev is negotiating an association accord with the bloc
aimed at closer economic and political ties. The EU has agreed
an Eastern Partnership programme to funnel funds into business
and other projects in ex-Soviet states including Ukraine.
Poland and Ukraine are working together on plans to co-host
the 2012 European soccer championship, although doubts remain
over Ukraine's capacity to organise such a large event.
RUSSIA LOOMS LARGE
Hungary and Poland will try to refocus on Ukraine's
long-term EU ambitions when they take turns to hold the EU's
rotating presidency in 2011, although political analysts expect
little progress given German and French hostility to more
enlargement.
"The feeling now is that we (the EU) are losing influence in
Ukraine ... and we have to come up with new policies and new
incentives because, basically, Russia is winning all the wars in
that area," said David Kral, director of the Prague-based
Institute for European Policy.
"They are winning the media war because Russian media are
much more present in Ukraine than European media."
Ukraine and eastern Europe as a whole are not priorities for
an Obama administration intent on "resetting" ties with Russia,
whose help it needs on Iran and Afghanistan.
Tens of thousands of Ukrainians have voted with their feet,
heading to the EU's eastern member states for a better life.
"Here in Poland I have a flat, a job, people treat me with
respect. Back in Ukraine the politicians think only of
themselves. Ukraine will never enter the EU," said Natalya, a
cleaner who has lived in Warsaw for 10 years and is trying now
to get her daughter to join her in Poland.
(Additional reporting by Michael Winfrey in Prague, Gergely
Szakacs in Budapest, Marius Zaharia and Ioana Patran in
Bucharest)
(Writing by Gareth Jones; editing by Andrew Dobbie)
