July 8 (Reuters) - Following are analysts' comments on the
main currency trends expected in central eastern Europe in a
Reuters poll published on Thursday.
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ON POLISH ZLOTY
RADOSLAW CHOLEWINSKI, NOBLE BANK, WARSAW
"We see a continuation of the sideways trend. Zloty is
likely to consolidate in the coming months within the range of
4.00-4.20 against the euro. Provided that fiscal concerns in
peripheral euro zone countries do not escalate, the Polish
currency may gain in the autumn, as the data on economic
activity in Poland will be supportive and the Polish MPC will
start interest rate hikes."
PETER POPLAWSKI, BGZ BANK, WARSAW
"Demand for the zloty is expected to remain driven primarily
by sentiment on global markets. During the holiday period any
turmoil on a global or regional scale may have a relatively
strong impact on the zloty. In a longer horizon the zloty is
likely to gain."
ON HUNGARIAN FORINT
GYORGY BARTA/SANDOR JOBBAGY, CIB BANK, BUDAPEST
"We expect the forint to remain under pressure in the short
term. The reason is threefold: the external sentiment remains
fairly negative. Domestic fiscal concerns are still in place,
more detail is needed on the government's action plans and its
budget goals for the upcoming years. Thirdly, the stronger CHF
puts the FX-indebted private sector under pressure and creates a
risk for the financial sector. As some of these negative
influences fade out, however, we expect the forint to return to
its long-term appreciation path versus the euro."
ESZTER GARGYAN, CITIGROUP, BUDAPEST
"External risk sentiment and uncertainties to the fiscal
outlook are likely to contribute to a sustained HUF weakness."
GYORGY BARCZA, K&H BANK, BUDAPEST
"I expect a firming of the forint mainly because the
government has pledged to meet the budget deficit target, and
also because (Wednesday's) industrial output figures were quite
promising. Hungary is good now both in growth and in (economic)
balance, if the budget will perform well."
DAVID NEMETH, ING BANK, BUDAPEST
"The peak of the current forint range (in the past two
months) was 278, and if the market calms down a little, the
forint can return there. No doubt, it remains a question whether
it can break through the 278 line. If it does, it can settle in
its (earlier) 260-280 range. It can return there if the
government approves a credible budget for next year, that can
improve market confidence. The government has been acting in a
quite obstinate way, sowing some concerns in the markets. I
expect a neutral (international market) environment for the next
few months."
ON CZECH CROWN
PETER POPLAWSKI, BGZ BANK, WARSAW
"The koruna proved resilient to debt-related turmoil and is
likely to remain the most stable currency in the CEE region."
ON ROMANIAN LEU
VLAD MUSCALU, ING BANK, BUCHAREST
"The NBR may allow a weaker leu than in first-half 2010 to
partially compensate for the fiscal austerity measures. A
favoured range may be 4.2-4.4/EUR, as a weaker leu may offset
the effects of higher inflation, which stem from the VAT hike,
on the real exchange rate."
(Reporting by Sandor Peto; Editing by Ron Askew)
