May 6 (Reuters) - Reuters has surveyed 40 emerging market strategists
for their views on when the newest members of the European Union are likely to
adopt the euro and when the EU may admit more new members.
Following is a summary of the results of the survey taken April 29 to
May 5.
For analysis of the results double-click on [] [].
1. In what year do you expect the following countries, which are at various
stages on the road to euro adoption, to enter the exchange rate mechanism (ERM-2)?
Median Mean Mode Maximum Minimum F'casts
Bulgaria 2012 2013 2012 2019 2011 20
Czech Republic 2013 2013 2013 2017 2011 32
Hungary 2013 2013 2013 2015 2011 28
Poland 2012 2012 2012 2015 2011 30
Romania 2013 2013 2013 2021 2011 23
2. In what year do you expect these countries to formally adopt the euro?
Median Mean Mode Maximum Minimum F'casts
Bulgaria 2015 2015 2015 2022 2012 25
Czech Republic 2016 2016 2016 2020 2013 36
Estonia 2011 2012 2011 2015 2011 25
Hungary 2015 2015 2015 2019 2013 32
Latvia 2015 2015 2014 2020 2012 24
Lithuania 2014 2014 2014 2020 2012 24
Poland 2015 2015 2015 2019 2014 34
Romania 2015 2016 2015 2024 2014 28
3. Which of the countries listed do you expect to appreciate, depreciate or
stay the same against the euro over the next 12 months, OR, in the case of ERM-2
countries, revalue, devalue or leave unchanged
REVALUE DEVALUE NO CHANGE
Bulgaria 1 1 18
Czech Republic 26 1 4
Estonia 0 0 20
Hungary 17 5 4
Latvia 0 3 15
Lithuania 0 2 16
Poland 23 1 4
Romania 19 0 4
4. Which are the biggest hurdles faced by EU countries on the road to euro
adoption: controlling inflation, controlling budget deficits, cutting public
debt, stabilising domestic currencies and lack of political will?
(Table shows count, some economists selected more than one)
Control Control budget Cut public Stabilise domestic Lack of
inflation deficits debt currencies Political will
Bulgaria 17 16 1 5 0
Czech Republic 0 31 0 5 29
Estonia 3 13 1 2 0
Hungary 17 30 29 11 3
Latvia 4 21 6 8 0
Lithuania 3 21 2 3 0
Poland 9 34 11 6 10
Romania 22 27 2 7 0
5. What central parity rate do you expect the following currencies
to be set at versus the euro upon their entry to the Exchange Rate Mechanism?
Median Mean Mode Max Min F'casts
Bulgarian Lev 1.96 1.96 1.96 1.96 1.95 14
Czech Koruna 24.05 23.74 24.50 28.00 20.50 24
Hungarian Forint 260 263 260 300 250 19
Polish Zloty 3.70 3.67 3.50 4.10 3.40 21
Romanian Leu 3.80 3.81 3.80 4.50 3.30 12
6. In which year will these countries join the European Union?
Median Mean Mode Max Min F'casts
Albania 2020 2019 2020 2020 2015 18
Bosnia 2020 2019 2020 2025 2016 19
Croatia 2012 2012 2012 2014 2011 24
Macedonia 2016 2016 2015 2020 2013 20
Montenegro 2016 2016 2015 2020 2014 18
Serbia 2016 2017 2016 2020 2014 19
Turkey 2020 2021 2020 2030 2015 17
Additional Question:
Will Estonia succeed in its euro membership bid in May? Yes/No
From the sample of 27 contributors:
- 22 said yes
- 5 said no
Contributors:
: 4Cast, Atlantik FT, Banco BPI, Bank Millennium, Bank of Cyprus,
Bankhaus Metzler, BayernLB, BGZ, BNP Paribas, BPH Bank, CA Cheuvreux,
Capital Economics, Ceska Sporitelna, CIB Bank , Concorde Securities,
CSOB, EFG Eurobank, Fitch Ratings, Generali PPF Asset Management,
Handelsbanken, Helaba, HSBC, IHS Global Insight, ING Financial Markets,
KBC, Komercni Banka, Kopint-Tárki, Landesbank Berlin, London School of Economics,National Bank
of Greece, Next Finance, NIESR, Nomura, Oppenheim Research, Patria, PKO Bank, Raiffeisenbank,
RBC, UniCredit, Wood & Co.
(Compiled by Karan Belani and Jayesh Nathwani in Bangalore)
