BRATISLAVA, Feb 12 (Reuters) - The Slovak economy rose by a
less than expected 2 percent in the last quarter of 2009, from
the previous three months, but growth accelerated from 1.6
percent in the third quarter, the Statistics Office said on
Friday.
Compared with a year earlier the heavily export-reliant
economy continued to decline, by 2.7 percent, compared with a
revised 4.9 percent contraction in the third quarter.
Analysts had expected growth of 2.2 percent versus the
previous quarter and a fall of 4.1 percent on the year.
For 2009 as a whole, the economy shrank 4.7 percent, the
Statistics Office said.
It did not publish a detailed breakdown of its flash GDP
estimate. Final data with details are due on March 4.
Analysts expect improving foreign demand, tied to a gradual
but jumpy recovery in the euro zone, and a revival of investment
activity as key growth drivers for 2010. However they say
domestic demand will remain weak due to a high jobless rate.
Separate data on Friday showed consumer prices rose by 0.2
percent on-the-month in January, pushing annual inflation back
to a record low 0.4 percent.
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KEY POINTS:
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
(pct change) Q4/09 Q3/09 Q4/Fcast
quarter/quarter +2.0 +1.6 +2.2
year/year -2.7 -4.9 -4.1
SLOVAK HEADLINE CPI JAN 10 DEC 09 JAN 09
pct change mo/mo +0.2 -0.1 +0.4
pct change yr/yr +0.4 +0.5 +3.4
(Full Jan data table ............ [])
===============================================================
*COMMENTARY:
LUBOMIR KORSNAK, UNICREDIT BANK - SLOVAKIA, ANALYST
* On GDP
"It was better than expected, there was another acceleration
(of growth) quarter-on-quarter, which is a bit surprising after
the industrial production was rather flat and construction
output was down (in the corresponding period)."
* On inflation
"The drop in the year-on-year inflation reading is due to
lower regulated utility prices (electricity, gas, heating - for
households)."
"We expect it to accelerate in the coming months and
throughout the year, but only slowly ... we see this year an
average inflation rate of 1.3 percent."
* Housing, water, electricity, gas and other utility prices fell
1.2 percent on the month after being flat in the previous two
months.
* Prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages rose 2.6 percent on
the month in December after a 0.2 percent decline in December.
* Prices of alcoholic beverages and tobacco rose by 0.3 percent
on the month, after being flat in December.
* Transportation prices, influenced mainly by oil costs,
decline by 0.3 percent on the month in January, after being flat
in the previous month.
BACKGROUND:
* Annual inflation in December at 0.5 percent was the first
increase since September 2008.
* Slovak price growth had slowed since September 2008,
mirroring global inflation trends, due to cooling economic
activity and the lower cost of oil and food.
* Inflation data is calculated according to domestic
methodology
* Slovakia also releases inflation data calculated under the
EU-harmonised consumer price index as part of its euro zone
entry in January 2009.
LINKS:
- For further details on January inflation and other past data,
Reuters 3000 Xtra users can click on the Slovak Statistics
Office's website:
-- http://portal.statistics.sk/showdoc.do?docid=3013 --
- Instant views on other Slovak data ... []
- Overview of Slovak macroeconomic indicators .... []
- For LIVE Slovak economic data releases, click on......<ECONSK>
- Schedule of upcoming indicator releases............<SK/ECON09>
- Summary of short-term economic data forecasts......<SK/ECON04>
- Slovak benchmark state bond prices .................<0#SKBMK=>
(Reporting by Martin Santa)
