BRATISLAVA, Feb 12 (Reuters) - The Slovak economy expanded
less than expected in the last quarter of 2009, though growth
accelerated to 2.0 percent quarter-on-quarter from 1.6 percent
in the third quarter, the Statistics Office said on Friday.
Compared with a year earlier the heavily export-reliant
economy continued to decline, by 2.7 percent, compared with a
revised 4.9 percent contraction in the third quarter.
Analysts had expected growth of 2.2 percent versus the
previous quarter and a fall of 4.1 percent on the year.
For 2009 as a whole, the economy shrank 4.7 percent, the
Statistics Office said.
It did not publish a detailed breakdown of its flash GDP
estimate. Final data with details are due on March 4.
Analysts expect improving foreign demand, tied to a gradual
but jumpy recovery in the euro zone, and a revival of investment
activity as key growth drivers for 2010. However they say
domestic demand will remain weak due to a high jobless rate.
Separate data on Friday showed consumer prices rose by 0.2
percent on-the-month in January, pushing annual inflation to
equal a record low of 0.4 percent.
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KEY POINTS:
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
(pct change) Q4/09 Q3/09 Q4/Fcast
quarter/quarter +2.0 +1.6 +2.2
year/year -2.7 -4.9 -4.1
SLOVAK HEADLINE CPI JAN 10 DEC 09 JAN 09
pct change mo/mo +0.2 -0.1 +0.4
pct change yr/yr +0.4 +0.5 +3.4
(Full Jan data table ............ [])
===============================================================
*COMMENTARY:
MARIA VALACHYOVA, SLOVENSKA SPORITELNA, SENIOR ANALYST
* on GDP
"This data looks good, we saw an acceleration of growth on
the quarterly basis and that was a bit surprising, we had
expected a modest deceleration."
"Higher formation of inventories might be the reason, net
exports continued to show a positive contribution (to the
growth)."
"We will likely return to growth on the year-on-year basis
in the first and second quarter, thanks to a low comparative
annual base, but the quarter on quarter growth should start to
ease."
LUBOMIR KORSNAK, UNICREDIT BANK - SLOVAKIA, ANALYST
* On GDP
"It was better than expected, there was another acceleration
(of growth) quarter-on-quarter, which is a bit surprising after
the industrial production was rather flat and construction
output was down (in the corresponding period)."
* On inflation
"The drop in the year-on-year inflation reading is due to
lower regulated utility prices (electricity, gas, heating - for
households)."
"We expect it to accelerate in the coming months and
throughout the year, but only slowly ... we see this year an
average inflation rate of 1.3 percent."
KEY POINTS
* Housing, water, electricity, gas and other utility prices fell
1.2 percent on the month after being flat in the previous two
months.
* Prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages rose 2.6 percent on
the month in December after a 0.2 percent decline in December.
* Prices of alcoholic beverages and tobacco rose by 0.3 percent
on the month, after being flat in December.
* Transportation prices, influenced mainly by oil costs,
decline by 0.3 percent on the month in January, after being flat
in the previous month.
BACKGROUND:
* Slovak price growth has slowed since September 2008,
mirroring global inflation trends, due to cooling economic
activity and the lower cost of oil and food.
* Inflation data is calculated according to domestic
methodology
* Slovakia also releases inflation data calculated under the
EU-harmonised consumer price index as part of its euro zone
entry in January 2009.
LINKS:
- For further details on January inflation and other past data,
Reuters 3000 Xtra users can click on the Slovak Statistics
Office's website:
-- http://portal.statistics.sk/showdoc.do?docid=3013 --
- Instant views on other Slovak data ... []
- Overview of Slovak macroeconomic indicators .... []
- For LIVE Slovak economic data releases, click on......<ECONSK>
- Schedule of upcoming indicator releases............<SK/ECON09>
- Summary of short-term economic data forecasts......<SK/ECON04>
- Slovak benchmark state bond prices .................<0#SKBMK=>
(Reporting by Martin Santa; editing by Patrick Graham)
