PRAGUE, April 21 (Reuters) - The leftist Czech Social Democrats are poised
to win a May 28-29 election but small right-wing and centrist parties may take
enough seats to make forming a left-leaning government difficult or even
impossible, an opinion poll showed on Wednesday.
The poll by the CVVM agency showed support for the Social Democrats (CSSD)
edged down to 30 percent in April from 32 percent last month, and support for
the main right-wing party, the Civic Democrats (ODS) dropped by 3 points to 22.5
percent.
But gains for new small parties, the conservative TOP09 and the liberal Veci
Verejne (VV, Public Affairs), put the overall combined vote for the centre-right
even with the combined vote for the Social Democrats and the far-left
Communists.
The Czech system of allocating seats can be disadvantageous for the smallest
parties, but the poll still suggested that the Social Democrats could have
difficulty forming a cabinet.
Parties win representation in the 200-seat lower house when they get more
than 5 percent of the vote on the national level. But crossing this limit is not
enough in some of the country's smaller voting regions, where a low number of
seats is distributed only among the top parties.
The Social Democrats could form a minority cabinet supported by the far-left
Communists, if they together win a majority. If not, the centrist and right-wing
parties could form a majority administration.
Other options are a coalition of the Civic Democrats with centrist parties
-- unlikely according to the Wednesday poll -- or a grand coalition of the
Social and Civic Democrats, which the two parties have been ruling out.
Most polls in the past weeks have suggested a slight left-wing majority.
DATE INSTITUTE ODS CSSD KSCM TOP09 KDU-CSL Greens VV
April 21/10 CVVM 22.5 30.0 13.0 11.5 4.0 4.0 9.0
April 16/10 STEM 18.6 27.8 9.9 9.3 4.9 3.2 8.1
April 14/10 Factum 22.3 29.5 13.9 11.6 5.5 2.6 8.9
April 13/10 Median 21.2 27.0 16.8 7.5 7.4 4.8 4.3
March 24/10 Factum 22.5 28.7 13.9 11.1 5.8 3.4 9.2
March 17/10 CVVM 25.5 32.0 12.0 10.0 4.5 4.5 7.0
March 16/10 STEM 20.0 27.9 11.3 7.7 4.8 3.8 6.2
Feb 2010 Median 20.7 34.5 13.9 9.6 5.5 4.8 5.2
Feb 24/10 Factum 23.8 27.9 14.3 13.0 6.4 3.7 5.7
Feb 19/10 CVVM 20.5 33.0 14.5 12.5 5.0 5.0 6.0
Feb 18/10 STEM 23.2 28.6 11.7 9.1 4.3 2.7 4.7
Jan 2010 Median 27.8 32.0 12.8 9.3 7.4 4.3 2.4
Jan 31/10 Factum 25.5 31.8 13.3 11.4 6.6 2.0 3.8
Jan 27/10 CVVM 25.5 28.0 12.0 13.0 7.0 6.0 4.0
Jan 19/10 STEM 20.9 28.7 10.9 8.4 4.2 4.0 3.9
Dec 17/09 CVVM 24.0 34.0 12.5 13.5 4.5 4.5 4.5
Dec 17/09 STEM 22.5 28.7 10.9 8.3 5.7 3.8 2.9
Nov 19/09 CVVM 26.5 34.5 11.0 12.0 5.0 4.0 3.5
Nov 18/09 STEM 23.3 25.4 12.3 8.4 5.1 3.5 1.8
Oct 27/09 STEM 25.2 26.2 11.6 8.7 4.1 3.2 -
Oct 21/09 CVVM 26.0 32.0 15.0 14.0 5.5 4.0 -
Oct 08/09 CVVM 28.5 32.0 12.0 12.5 6.0 3.0 -
Oct 02/09 STEM 23.2 27.4 10.6 9.2 4.2 4.6 -
Sept 16/09 CVVM 29.5 29.5 15.5 13.0 5.5 4.5 -
Aug 31/09 STEM 24.1 29.0 11.2 6.8 5.7 2.7 -
Aug 19/09 CVVM 31.0 33.0 13.5 9.5 5.0 3.0 -
June 25/09 CVVM 35.0 30.0 16.0 2.0 6.5 5.5 -
June 19/09 STEM 28.3 28.2 12.8 - 6.2 2.7 -
May 19/09 STEM 23.7 32.4 10.9 - 5.3 5.9 -
May 19/09 CVVM 29.0 38.0 15.0 - 7.0 6.5 -
April 15/09 CVVM 28.0 37.5 15.5 - 7.0 7.0 -
April 15/09 STEM 27.5 35.1 10.5 - 4.4 5.6 -
March 18/09 CVVM 31.5 36.0 16.0 - 5.0 7.0 -
March 17/09 STEM 27.8 35.3 11.0 - 6.0 5.3 -
Feb 18/09 CVVM 29.0 38.5 15.5 - 7.0 6.0 -
Feb 13/09 STEM 25.5 35.2 11.8 - 6.8 5.1 -
--------------------------------------------------------------------
June 2006 election 35.4 32.3 12.8 - 7.2 6.3 -
NOTE. The Median poll was conducted between April 5 and April 12 among 1,002
Czechs.
The parties are:
- Civic Democratic Party (ODS) - right-of-centre, liberal-conservative
- The Czech Social Democratic Party (CSSD) - leftist
- The Communist Party of Bohemia and Moravia (KSCM) - far left
- TOP09 - Newly formed conservative party, likely ally of the ODS
- Christian Democratic Union-Czechoslovak People's Party (KDU-CSL) - centrist
- The Greens - environmentalists, centrist
- Veci Verejne (Public Affairs) - new, small liberal party
Pollsters: The CVVM and Median results are based on a model predicting gains
at the ballot box, excluding those not willing to vote and undecided.
STEM results are direct voter preferences, and include replies from all
respondents including those not willing to vote. Parties should thus win a
larger than indicated share of the vote at the election. This is relevant mainly
for small parties, which may cross the 5 percent threshold to win seats even if
direct voter preferences show them below the minimum level.
(Reporting by Jan Lopatka)
