PRAGUE, March 11 (Reuters) - The Czech statistics bureau
surprisingly revised its preliminary estimate for fourth quarter
gross domestic product on Thursday to show small growth instead
of a contraction.
It said the economy rose by 0.7 percent from the third
quarter. A flash estimate released in February had shown a
quarter-on-quarter contraction of 0.6 percent.
The economy fell by a real 3.1 percent on an annual basis in
the fourth quarter, less than the flash estimate showing a drop
of 4.2 percent. For the full year 2009 the economy fell by 4.1
percent less, than the preliminary estimate for a 4.3 percent.
The quarterly figure came in just below analysts' original
forecast in February for a 0.8 percent rise in GDP in the last
three months of 2009. They had predicted a fall of 2.8 percent
versus the previous year.
The Czech year-on-year contraction was worse than the
decline in neighbouring Slovakia, which posted 2.6 percent
year-on-year drop in September-December, but better than a 4.0
percent drop in Hungary. []
Poland was the only country in the region to buck the trend
with 3.1 percent growth in the fourth quarter.
The statistical bureau also revised third-quarter estimate
to a decline of 4.5 percent from 4.1 percent year on year and a
0.6 percent growth quarter on quarter, below 0.8 percent
expansion recorded in the flesh estimate.
The Czech crown <EURCZK=> firmed a touch to 25.569 to the
euro after the data from 25.585.
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KEY POINTS:
CZECH Q4 GDP (pct) Q/Q YR/YR 2009
Real change 0.7 -3.1 -4.1
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CENTRAL BANK FORECAST: A 2009 fourth-quarter GDP seen
shrinking by 2.7 percent year on year. The central bank is due
to release a comment on the data between 1400 GMT and 1500 GMT.
COMMENTS:
MICHAL BROZKA, ANALYST, RAIFFEISENBANK
"We had said that the likelihood of the revision was
significant and that the drop does not have to be as bad as it
looked at first sight. The bureau had said the reason for the
drop (in the flash estimate) was a decline in (indirect) taxes
and today they happened to have delayed the release by five
hours due to information on VAT collection."
"Household consumption fell 0.6 percent quarter on the
quarter which is weak but not surprising. A moderate rise in
fixed investment is moderately positive."
JAN VEJMELEK, HEAD OF ECONOMIC STRATEGY AND RESEARCH,
KOMERCNI BANKA
"We are back at where we thought (we were) before the flash
estimate. The assessment of the economy is more consistent with
monthly indicators and global development and other countries in
the region."
"It confirms the Czech economy is out of the recession...
and is not a surprise. We hope this stabilisation will
continue."
"Growth will be rather weak and not enough to create new
jobs. Investment is still low and will remain low because of
free capacities. Consumer demand will remain low because of high
unemployment. The only growth driver can come from abroad,
meaning net exports and inventories."
CZECH STATS OFFICE STATEMENT
"The corrected GDP estimate including industrial structure
of resources and expenditure items was compiled using more
complete annual and quarterly information not available at the
time when the GDP preliminary estimate was formed (12 February)
and, therefore, missing information had to be replaced by
estimates and model calculations as usually."
"Subsequently, it has showed that especially a preliminary
estimate of development of indirect taxes in Q4 compiled by
Ministry of Finance and results of model calculations for some
missing indicators both of administrative and statistical data
sources including their allocation to individual quarters
unfortunately partially differ from actual values."
DAVID MAREK, CHIEF ECONOMIST, PATRIA FINANCE
"It is a surprise, but on the other hand, the fresh figures
are close to market consensus. So the surprise from previous
figures is explained."
"The development of the Czech economy in the last quarter is
in line with other figures -- retail sales, foreign trade,
industrial output -- and also development in the euro zone. Now
we are not an outlier but are back in a typical situation of a
small, open economy."
"Our models were not wrong, but right, and the statisticians
were wrong this time... It should have no impact on financial
markets."
PETR DUFEK, ANALYST, CSOB
"I see the new GDP result as positive. The previous forecast
was very pessimistic and at first glance did not correspond with
a better result on foreign trade."
"The economy has been picking up since the third quarter.
The decline for the full year is also not very surprising,
actually, as it was helped by investment and inventories. A fall
in investment can also be expected this year."
"This year household demand will also be negative, while
foreign trade could contribute positively to economic
development. Overall of course we can't expect any significant
recovery, but only a slow and fragile growth dependent on the
swings in the German economy."
CENTRAL BANK FORECAST: A 2009 fourth-quarter GDP seen shrinking
by 2.7 percent year on year. The central bank is due to release
a comment on the data between 1400 GMT and 1500 GMT.
(For full table of Q4 GDP data................[])
- The office said: "A preliminary estimate of development of
indirect taxes in the fourth quarter results of model
calculations for some missing indicators both of administrative
and statistical data sources including their allocation to
individual quarters unfortunately partially differ from actual
values."
- On the demand side, the total annual 1.2 percent increase of
final consumption expenditure contributed positively by 0.9
percentage point to the GDP growth
- Foreign trade balance was 9.9 percent lower year-on-year in
real terms, the bureau said.
BACKGROUND:
- For story on analysts' expectations before the data release,
double click on..................[].[]
- Slovak Q4 GDP..................................[]
- Poland's Q4 GDP................................[]
- Hungary's Q4 GDP...............................[]
LINKS:
- For further details on fourth quarter GDP and past data,
Reuters 3000 Xtra users can click on the Czech Statistical
Bureau's website:
http://www.czso.cz/eng/csu.nsf/kalendar/2004-hdp
- For LIVE Czech economic data releases, click on <ECONCZ>
- Instant Views on other Czech data []
- Overview of Czech macroeconomic indicators []
- Key data releases in central Europe []
- For Czech money markets data click on <CZKVIEW>
- Czech money guide <CZK/1>
- Czech benchmark state bond prices <0#CZBMK=>
- Czech forward money market rates <CZKFRA>
