* Concerns over Greek debt crisis boost dollar vs euro
* Forecast rise in OPEC exports dampens sentiment
* Coming up: U.S. ECRI gauge of likely growth at 1430 GMT
(Adds detail)
By Christopher Johnson
LONDON, March 19 (Reuters) - Oil slipped below $82 a barrel
on Friday as the dollar strengthened against the euro on worries
over Greece's debt problems, and after an industry report
suggested OPEC exports were rising.
The U.S. currency rose against the euro after Greece said it
could not achieve promised deficit cuts if its borrowing costs
remained high, raising the stakes in its quest for the European
Union to help tackle its debt crisis. []
The dollar index <.DXY>, which tracks the performance of the
U.S. currency against a basket of six major currencies, edged
0.36 percent higher to $80.513 by 1030 GMT. []
Crude prices tend to fall with a stronger dollar as
investors seek the safer haven of the U.S. currency over
commodities. A weaker dollar also makes dollar-denominated
commodities less expensive for holders of other currencies.
U.S. light crude for April delivery <CLc1> shed 55 cents to
$81.65 a barrel by 1030 GMT, after settling 73 cents down at
$82.20 on Thursday. London Brent crude for May <LCOc1> fell 60
cents to $80.88.
Oil prices are now near the top of their range over the last
18 months, supported by expectations of steady economic
recovery, which are helping Asian stock markets close in on a
sixth straight week of gains. []
But the U.S. crude futures contract, also known as WTI, has
stabilised over the last 10 days following a month of gains,
oscillating within a $3 range from around $80 to $83 and
analysts say the market may now see a consolidation.
"LONG MONEY"
"Technically, it seems that a retest of the 2010 high of
$83.95 on WTI will be delayed," said Edward Meir, senior
commodity analyst at brokers MF Global. "We suspect that the
longer it takes for WTI to retest this level, the greater the
likelihood is that prices will turn lower."
Meir said non-commercial long positions were at two-month
highs, which meant a price fall could be exaggerated:
"This is turn suggests that 'long money' may decide to pull
out in the event of a price stall, leading to much sharper
decline than what we have been seeing thus far."
Carsten Fritsch, analyst at Commerzbank in Frankfurt, said
oil looked comfortable within a range between $80 and $83 per
barrel with little immediate sign of a breakout.
"If the dollar were to strengthen significantly from here,
oil prices could drop below $80, but they have been holding up
fairly well. Bullish sentiment is still dominant," Fritsch said.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
decided this week to keep its oil production targets at current
levels but the producer group is actually pumping well above its
declared targets, helping keep a lid on prices.
All estimates, including OPEC's own data, show compliance
has fallen steadily over the last year but the market seems
unfazed. OPEC is likely to leave its targets unchanged again at
its next meeting in October, Kuwaiti Oil Minister Sheikh Ahmad
al-Abdullah al-Sabah said. []
Evidence of slipping compliance came on Thursday from UK
consultancy Oil Movements, which forecast seaborne oil exports
by OPEC, excluding Angola and Ecuador, will rise by 70,000
barrels per day (bpd) in the four weeks to April 3.
[]
Demand in the world's biggest oil consumer, the United
States, will be in focus later on Friday with a key weekly gauge
of future U.S. economic growth, the Economic Cycle Research
Institute (ECRI), due at 1430 GMT.
(Reporting by Christopher Johnson; editing by James Jukwey)
