* Sharp revision shows recovery continued
* Central bank rates seen on hold until H2
* Stats office says poor tax estimate caused revisions
* TABLE [], INSTANT VIEW []
By Jan Lopatka
PRAGUE, March 11 (Reuters) - The Czech economy accelerated
its recovery in the last quarter of 2009, final data showed on
Thursday in a sharp revision from earlier figures that had shown
a slide back into recession.
Gross domestic product grew by 0.7 percent from the previous
three months, the Czech Statistical Bureau said, close to
original market expectations but a huge revision from a 0.6
percent decline reported in a flash estimate on Feb. 12.
The revision firmed up expectations that the highly
export-dependent central European country was on a W-shaped
recovery path, with the second, milder dip in activity coming
this year as west European states unwind car scrappage schemes
that had buoyed the Czech automotive sector.
Analysts said the central bank would still likely keep rates
on hold before tightening policy in the second half.
"Growth will be rather weak and not enough to create new
jobs ... The only growth driver can come from abroad, meaning
net exports and inventories," said Jan Vejmelek, the head of
economic and strategy research at Komercni Banka.
The CSU released the final data at 1300 GMT, a highly
unusual delay from 0800 GMT, saying it received important data
on value added tax that needed to be put into the calculations.
The bureau said the main reason for the big data revision
was an imprecise early estimate of indirect taxes done by the
Finance Ministry.
The fourth quarter figure was driven mainly by inventories,
foreign trade and public spending, while household spending had
begun to drop as growing unemployment started to bite.
The economy dropped by 3.1 percent year-on-year in the final
quarter and the full-year output was 4.1 percent lower than in
2008.
POLAND, SLOVAKIA AHEAD
The Czech year-on-year contraction was worse than
neighbouring Slovakia's 2.6 percent year-on-year GDP shrinkage
in September-December, but better than a 4.0 percent drop in
Hungary. []
Poland was the only country in the region to buck the trend
with 3.1 percent year-on-year growth in the fourth quarter.
Bulgaria revised fourth quarter GDP to a 5.9 percent
contraction from a flash estimate of 6.2 percent shrinkage on
Thursday. []
The Czech central bank said the revised data was in line
with its quarterly economic outlook presented in February, which
sees interest rates rising in the second half.
Analysts said that the main repo rate would stay at a record
low of 1 percent for months to come.
"We have lower than expected inflation in first two months
of the new year and recently we saw quite fast appreciation of
the crown, so the GDP revision is unlikely to evoke any hawkish
tone in the (central bank) statements for now," said Radomir
Jac, chief analyst at PPF Asset Management.
The crown currency traded flat after the data at 25.59 per
euro, down 0.2 percent on the day. <EURCZK=> []
(Editing by Ruth Pitchford)
