(Repeats story published late on Thursday)
* Full data on pages starting with <CEEFXPOLL01>
* CEE fx seen firming 2-6 pct in next 12 mths, zloty leads
* Zloty, leu prospects improved since last poll
By Sandor Peto
BUDAPEST, Feb 4 (Reuters) - Poland's zloty is expected to
firm beyond the key level of 4.0 against the euro in the next
months and the outlook of Romania's leu has also improved in the
past weeks, a monthly Reuters poll showed on Thursday.
The poll of 43 analysts conducted on Feb. 1-4 confirmed the
view that Central European currencies are expected to gain in
the next 12 months, led by the zloty and the Czech crown, while
the Hungarian forint is seen lagging behind its peers.
Economic recovery in the world and the region is seen
supporting the units.
But gains in the next few months may be limited as the pace
of recovery, potential euro weakens and a possible retreat of
global equity markets might curb risk appetite, while Southern
Europe's fiscal woes cast a shadow on Central Europe as well.
Upcoming elections in the region add to uncertainty, and
investors will also watch when central banks will start to
reverse rate cuts, or end them in the case of Hungary and
Romania.
The zloty <EURPLN=> and the leu <EURRON=> have outperformed
in the region so far this year, gaining three and two percent
respectively against the euro, and the prospects of the two have
also improved in the past weeks, analysts said.
Poland was the only European Union member which escaped
recession last year due to its strong domestic market.
Its more export-reliant neighbours are also seen shifting to
growth later this year from deep recession in 2009, but the
zloty is seen receiving additional support from privatisation
and Poland's relatively sound fundamentals.
The median forecast in the poll sees the zloty firming to
3.98 against the euro, compared with 4.08 expected a month ago.
"The recovery of the economy, growing rate hike expectations
and euro recovery will lead to further zloty strength in the 6
and 12-month horizon," said Daniel Lenz of DZ Bank.
The zloty is expected to firm about six percent to 3.81 in
the next 12 months, the same forecast as a month ago.
The leu is expected to stagnate around 4.1 versus the euro
in the next six months, rather than 4.2 projected a month ago,
and firm by about three percent to 4.0 on the 12-month horizon,
compared with the previous forecast of 4.15.
"With political tension (late last year) much out of the way
we believe the leu has sizeable firming potential thanks to its
hefty yield advantage and the favourable long-term prospects of
Romania," said Vlad Muscalu of ING Bank.
Romania's central bank cut interest rates by 50 basis points
to 7 percent on Wednesday, but it remains the highest rate in
the region, followed by 6.0 percent in Hungary. Both banks are
expected to cut rates further, while the next likely move in
Poland and the Czech Republic is a hike.
The poll projects that the Czech crown will strengthen by
some 4.5 percent in the next 12 months to 25 versus the euro, an
unchanged forecast from last month.
The forint is seen gaining 2-3 percent to 265 on the same
horizon, but it could remain stuck around 271 in the next six
months as Hungary's April elections maintain some risk over
fiscal policy and high state debt keeps the forint vulnerable.
"As long as investors remain sensitive to high debt levels,
Hungary will remain more vulnerable than others," said David
Nemeth of ING, adding that fiscal problems in Greece and
Southern Europe keep sovereign debt levels in the focus.
For data please click on <CEEFXPOLL01>
To see latest poll on major currencies, please see
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For more analyst comments on CEE currencies please click on
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(Reporting by Sandor Peto; Editing by Andy Bruce)
