(Repeats story published on May 3)
* WHAT: March retail sales, foreign trade, industrial output
* WHEN: May 7 at 9:00 a.m. (0700 GMT)
* REUTERS FORECAST: Retail sales median 0.1 percent in March
vs -2.1 percent in Feb., foreign trade surplus median 19.3
billion crowns ($1.01 billion) vs 15.33 in Feb. Industrial
output median 8.5 percent yr/yr vs 7.0 percent in Feb.
Thirteen analysts took part in the survey and the range on
the retail sales data was -3.0 to + 3.0 percent, foreign trade
balance forecasts ranged from 13 billion to 35 billion crowns.
Output predictions ranged from 3-12 percent.
FACTORS TO WATCH: Retail sales <CZRSLY=ECI> are expected to
eke out the first expansion after 17 consecutive months of
decline, thanks to a pick up in car and durable goods sales, and
a relatively low comparative base.
A revival in consumer confidence based on a moderately
optimistic outlook for economic growth, along with expectations
that unemployment has peaked, should prop up household demand,
ING Commercial Banking senior economist Vojtech Benda said.
"We are approaching a turnaround toward a long-term growth
in household consumption and retail sales," Benda said.
A pick up in foreign orders should boost Czech foreign trade
<CZFTB=ECI> volumes in March.
Imports were seen jumping by 11.9 percent in March, up from
7.9 percent in Feb., a third consecutive rise after fifteen
months of contracting.
A higher base effect likely curbed growth in exports, which
were seen rising 9.5 percent, down from February's 11 percent.
"A rebound in the export activity and in the assessment of
export orders (was) accompanied with larger imports," said
Jaromir Sindel, chief analyst at Citibank in Prague.
The Czech statistics bureau will also release March
industrial data on May 7, and analysts predict an 8.5 percent
rise, up from 7.0 percent in February, driven by foreign orders.
MARKET REACTION: Retail sales data have had limited impact
on markets. But a bigger-than-expected growth could prop up the
currency as it would boost investors' confidence the economy was
firmly on a recovery path, led not only by exports but also in
improvement in domestic demand.
Solid performance of foreign trade has held the crown firm
in past months and numbers confirming the trend could again
boost the unit.
For Czech March macro preview table: []
Czech stats office website: www.czso.cz
Czech labour and social affairs ministry www.mpsv.cz
All Czech economic data: <ECONALLCZ>
Central and Eastern Europe market report: []
(Reporting by Mirka Krufova and Jana Mlcochova; editing by
Tony Austin)
