PRAGUE, May 7 (Reuters) - Czech retail sales rose by 3.9
percent year-on-year in March, significantly higher growth than
analysts' forecast for a 0.1 percent expansion.
Retail sales were shrinking between October 2008 and
February.
Data also showed the Czech industry expanded by 10.2 percent
versus a year earlier in March, beating expectations for a 8.5
percent rise after growth of 7.0 percent in the previous month.
Czech foreign trade posted an 18.3 billion crown ($971.8
million) surplus in March, lower than analyst forecasts for 19.3
billion surplus.
Exports rose 12.7 percent year-on-year, the fifth rise in a
row. Imports rose by 15.8 percent, the third gain since
September 2008, the Czech statistics bureau added.
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KEY POINTS:
(change in percent) March Feb March fcast
RETAIL SALES (y/y) 3.9 -2.1 0.1
INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT March Feb March fcast
Real pct change y/y 10.2 7.0 8.5
Industrial sales 5.0 1.4 n/a
FOREIGN TRADE
(in bln CZK) March Feb March fcast
balance 18.27 14.45(15.33) 19.3
(nominal y/y change in pct)
exports 12.7 10.3 (11.0) 9.5
imports 15.8 7.6 (7.9) 11.9
Details of March retail sales data..............[]
Details of March industrial output data.........[]
Details of March retail sales data..............[]
RETAIL SALES
- The headline, unadjusted figure includes retail sales plus car
sales and repairs, as well as fuel sales.
- Seasonally-adjusted retail sales including fuels and cars rose
by a real 2.0 percent month-on-month, and rose 0.5 percent
year-on-year in March.
- Unadjusted car and car maintenance sales rose by a real 10.2
percent year-on-year, with car sales rising by 12.3 percent and
maintenance sales contracting by 0.6 percent.
INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT
- Industrial output rose 10.2 percent year on year in March,
versus a 7.0 percent in February.
- Overall new orders rose 15.8 percent year-on-year, and new
orders from abroad increased by 16.5 percent.
- Orders in the vehicle making sector rose by 11.3 percent.
- Construction output, measured by a separate index, dipped 18.3
percent year-on-year in March.
FOREIGN TRADE
- According to seasonally-adjusted preliminary data, exports
rose 5.2 percent in March from February, while imports grew 4.3
percent month-on-month.
- In euro terms, exports rose 20.1 percent and imports rose 23.4
percent year-on-year in March.
- The balance showed an annual drop by 2.7 billion crowns.
- The year-on-year surplus decline was mainly due a wider
deficit in trade with semi-finished goods and materials, as well
as minerals, food, animals and chemicals.
COMMENTARY:
VOJTECH BENDA, SENIOR ECONOMIST, ING COMMERCIAL BANKING
"The recovery in growth of retail sales signal a positive
turnaround in household consumption, which should not be a brake
on growth in the coming quarters but rather contribute to it
positively. The GDP growth is thus standingf on two legs.
"The new numbers are showing that the central bank's
pessimism is probably exaggerated and economic growth in the
Czech Republic this year could exceed its expectations. The
decision to cut rates was probably premature."
MICHAL BROZKA, ANALYST, RAIFFEISEN
"Industrial output continues to recover and drives the
economy up. That should show in the gross domestic product data
in the first quarter."
"In the second half of the year we expect a moderate
slowdown in industry and for the whole year we expect only a
moderate growth of around 2 percent."
JAN VEJMELEK, HEAD OF ECONOMIC AND STRATEGY RESEARCH,
KOMERCNI BANKA:
"A gradual recovery of economic activity in the countries of
our biggest trading partners, mainly Germany, is being reflected
in higher foreign demand...Together with the statistics of
export activity it is showing that the situation in the sector
is really beginning to improve. The double-digit growth of new
orders shows that this may not be only a one-off fluctuation."
BACKGROUND:
- Market expectations before release []
- Slovak Feb trade figures []
- March consumer inflation []
- February industrial output []
- Report on last Czech c.bank rate decision......[]
[] [] [] []
- For further details on March retail sales, industrial output
and foreign trade data and other past data, Reuters 3000 Xtra
users can click on the Czech Statistical Bureau's website:
http://www.czso.cz/eng/csu.nsf/kalendar/2004-vzo
- For LIVE Czech economic data releases, click on <ECONCZ>
- Instant Views on other Czech data click on []
- Overview of Czech macroeconomic indicators []
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- For Czech money markets data click on <CZKVIEW>
- Czech money guide <CZK/1>
- Czech benchmark state bond prices <0#CZBMK=>
- Czech forward money market rates <CZKFRA>
(Reporting by Jana Mlcochova)
