* WHAT: Czech, Slovak first quarter GDP flash estimate
* WHEN: May 12 at 9.00 a.m. (0700 GMT)
* REUTERS FORECAST: Czech first quarter gross domestic
product median 0.4 percent q/q vs 0.7 percent in Q4 2009, 1.4
percent yr/yr vs -3.1 percent in 2009, FY 2010 GDP median 1.6;
Slovak first quarter GDP median 0.3 percent q/q vs 2.0
percent in Q4, 4.5 percent yr/yr vs -2.6 percent in 2009
FACTORS TO WATCH:
A pick up in west European demand bolstered the
export-reliant economies' foreign trade and industrial
production, likely leading to the first annual growth in GDP,
after four consecutive quarters of falling.
Czech industrial output and both exports and imports beat
expectations in March, showing a recovery was firmly on track
despite the Greek debt crisis, which may stir another bout of
weakness in economic activity across Europe if it leads to
fiscal tightening.
Retail sales, an indicator of the strength in domestic
demand and the second leg of growth, rose in March for the first
time after 17 months of decline, and faster than forecast.
[]
Analysts forecast the full-year Czech GDP growth at 1.6
percent, slightly more optimistic than both the Finance
Ministry's 1.5 percent and the central bank's 1.4 percent
forecasts.
Rate-setters trimmed Czech borrowing costs to a record low
0.75 percent this week, surprising markets expecting no change.
Foreign demand was the key driver also for Slovak growth in
the first quarter, as domestic demand remained subdued due to a
stressed labour markets and high unemployment, analysts said.
"The coming months look good, export-oriented sectors
benefit from a favourable foreign demand. It will be important
that this driver is, to some extent, gradually replaced by
domestic demand," Eduard Hagara, senior analyst at ING Bank in
Bratislava said.
Romania and Bulgaria will also report their preliminary GDP
data for the first three months of 2010 on May 12.
For Czech GDP estimates table .......... []
For Slovak GDP estimates table ......... []
The Czech Statistics office website ... www.czso.cz
The Slovak Statistics office website .. www.statistics.sk
All Czech economic data: <ECONALLCZ>
All Slovak economic data: <ECONALLSK>
Central and Eastern Europe market report: []
(Reporting by Mirka Krufova, Martin Santa and Jana
Mlcochova; editing by Ron Askew)
