INSTANT VIEW 3-Czech Jan C/A surplus CZK 15.6 bln

                                
 PRAGUE, March 12 (Reuters) - The Czech current account
showed a 15.62 billion crown ($827.8 million) surplus in January
after a revised 16.79 billion crown gap in December, almost four
times wider than market forecast for a 4.4 billion crown
surplus.
                                
 The positive result was due to a surplus on the balance of
trade in goods and services, the Czech central bank said on
Friday. 
                                
 January foreign trade reading showed a bigger than expected
surplus, Statistics office said on March 8. [ID:nLDE62706L]
                                
 Seperate data showed on Wednesday the full-year 2009 current
account deficit was revised to 37.02 billion crowns ($1.96
billion) from 25.38 billion, representing 1.02 percent of the
2009 nominal gross domestic product (GDP), about a third of the
2008 gap.
                                
 The 12-month rolling deficit dipped to 22.43 billion crowns,
or 0.62 percent of the 2009 GDP, according to Reuters
calculations.

****************************************************************
KEY POINTS:
(CZK billions)            Jan           Dec         Jan forecast
Current Account          15.62        -16.79*        4.4
Financial Account        -0.88         19.94*        n/a
Net Direct Investment     7.44         18.23*        n/a

                                
 *Revised numbers
                                
 (For full table, double click on [ID:nPRA004990])
                                
 
- The income deficit showed estimated reinvested earnings of
5.6 billion crowns.
- The balance of current transfers includes a surplus of 7.8
billion crowns on transfers from the EU budget to the Czech
Republic.
- Net inflow of direct investment was 7.4 billion crowns and was
affected by reinvested earnings.
- Portfolio investment inflow of 3.3 billion crowns was mainly
due to increased holdings of crown government bonds by foreign
investors.
- Other investment showed a deficit of 7 billion crowns thanks
to a drop in corporate sector liabilities and a change in the
international position of banks.
- The central bank foreign currency reserves adjusted for
valuation changes rose by 4.6 billion crowns.
                                
 
COMMENTARY:
                                
 DAVID MAREK, CHIEF ECONOMIST, PATRIA FINANCE
                                
 "The relatively high surplus possibly surprised markets a
little but the reason is obvious: mainly the favourable
development of the trade balance. The start of the year shows
that we could reach a full year surplus on the current account
this year, which has so far never happened in the Czech
Republic's modern history."
                                
 "This can stabilise the crown exchange rate... The Czech
Republic ranks among the stabilized economies thanks to the
current account and we are not threatened by any source of an
elevated instability in financial markets."
                                
 
                                
 MIROSLAV FRAYER, ECONOMIC & STRATEGY RESEARCH, KOMERCNI
BANKA
                                
 "The result was affected mainly by the higher trade balance
surplus and inflow of money from the EU."
                                
 "This year should be affected by the falling surplus in
foreign trade mainly due to a lower activity in the car
industry, the balance should be deteriorated also by rising
commodity prices."
                                
 "But income balance should prevent the current account from
a deep fall as we expect a decline in repatriation of profits."
                                
 
                                
 VOJTECH BENDA, SENIOR ECONOMIST, ING, PRAGUE
                                
 "The positive thing is that foreign direct investment inflow
is rising, which is thanks to reinvested profit."
                                
 "The development on the balance of payments is positive for
the crown because of the rather massive surplus of the trade
balance, which is due to rising exports while domestic demand
remains weak."
                                
 "This trend could continue in the nearest months because
household consumption is falling, investments have stabilized
but are still rather low. This means imports should be muted
while exports will rise."
                                
 "This is positive for the crown in the mid-term horizon."

MARKET REACTION:
                                
 The crown brifely firmed to 25.400 to the euro <EURCZK=>
from 25.435 after the data, before dipping back to 25.47 at 0930
GMT.
                                
 
  BACKGROUND:
- Analyst expectations before data release       [ID:nLDE61P0W7]
- Czech Jan foreign trade figures                [ID:nLDE62706L]
- Polish Dec C/A data                            [ID:nLDE61B0YO]
- Slovak Dec C/A data                            [ID:nPRG003945]
- Hungary's Q3 C/A gap                           [ID:nLDE5BS1A9]
- Report on last Czech c.bank rate decision......[ID:nLDE6120X3]
                                
              [ID:nPRC003354] [ID:nPRG003903] [ID:nLDE61320F]

LINKS:
- For further details on January of payments numbers and past
data, Reuters 3000 Xtra users can click on the Czech National
Bank's website:
                                
 http://www.cnb.cz/en/statistics/bop_stat/

- For LIVE Czech economic data releases, click on       <ECONCZ>
- Instant Views on other Czech data                 [CZ/INSTANT]
- Overview of Czech macroeconomic indicators            [CZ/ECI]

- Key data releases in central Europe    [CEE-CONVERGENCE-WATCH]
- For Czech money markets data click on                <CZKVIEW>
- Czech money guide                                      <CZK/1>
- Czech benchmark state bond prices                   <0#CZBMK=>
- Czech forward money market rates                      <CZKFRA>

 (Reporting by Jana Mlcochova)