PRAGUE, Sept 27 (Reuters) - All seven policymakers are
taking part in the Czech central bank's policy meeting on
Wednesday when markets expect no change in interest rates,
although a growing number of analysts say the chances of an
increase have risen.
Rate rises in Slovakia and Hungary this week, coupled with a
weaker currency and a worsening fiscal outlook, may prompt the
Czech central bank to tighten sooner than expected.
The following are recent comments by board members on
policy:
BOARD MEMEBR MICHAELA ERBENOVA, in daily Mlada fronta Dnes on
Sept. 20:
-- said Czech state finances are not under control and the
country should start discussing a new euro entry strategy.
"State finances are not under control at this moment,"
"This (euro entry) strategy was not being fulfilled, so now
we should talk mainly about the reasons and not just the date
of euro adoption," Erbenova said. "The time has come to
seriously discuss a new strategy on the euro."
STORY: [ID:nL20149561]
VICE-GOVERNOR LUDEK NIEDERMAYER, on Czech Television on Sept.
19:
-- said it was difficult to say if rates would rise at the
Sept. 27 meeting.
STORY: [ID:nL1972272]
GOVERNOR ZDENEK TUMA, at joint news conference with Prime
Minister Mirek Topolanek on Sept 19:
"Not much has been done in the area of public finance reform
and the labour market, so the outlook for euro adoption in 2010
really does not look realistic."
STORY: [ID:NL19814000]
VICE-GOVERNOR MIROSLAV SINGER, in a Reuters interview on Sept
14:
Mounting inflation pressure will force central bank
policymakers to consider "deeply and thoroughly" an interest
rate rise later this month.
"I think there will be debate -- in somewhat more urgent
spirit than up until now -- about what is the appropriate
reaction to the fact that our (inflation) prediction is being
fulfilled."
STORY: [ID:nL14911380] HIGHLIGHTS: [ID:nL14126373]
VICE-GOVERNOR NIEDERMAYER, in an article in daily Mlada fronta
Dnes on Sept 13:
-- called the government's budget draft for 2007 the "worst
and most dangerous" in recent years, adding fuel to market
concerns over fiscal slippage.
"The 16 percent increase in mandatory social expenditures,
which now account for more than half of the budget, is
frightening."
STORY: [ID:nL13874191]
MINUTES TO PREVIOUS MONTHLY POLICY MEETING ON AUG 31
Policymakers agreed at their Aug. 31 meeting that projected
budget deficits posed an upside inflation risk and marked
"considerable" fiscal expansion.
Five members of the policy board present at the session
voted unanimously to hold the key policy rate at 2.25 percent.
Central bankers agreed the economy was performing in line
with their quarterly forecast from July and that risks to their
inflation projections putting headline price growth above the 3
percent midpoint of the inflation target were balanced. The
minutes said board members saw a possible firming in the crown
as the sole major downside risk to inflation.
TEXT OF MINUTES: [IDnL08905230] STORY: [ID:nL0856016]
GOVERNOR ZDENEK TUMA AT MONTHLY NEWS CONFERENCE ON AUG. 31
"Nothing has changed in the economy which would bring a
significant surprise to us. We can still use the (July)
prediction which assumes a certain interest rate rise in a
longer term."
"We see the risks to the forecasts as roughly balanced."
REPORT FROM AUG. 31 RATE DECISION AND NEWS CONFERENCE:
[ID:nL31340867]
===========HISTORY OF SIX MOST RECENT RATE CHANGES=============
July 2006: hike by 25 basis points to current 2.25 percent
October 2005: hike by 25 basis points to 2.0 percent
April 2005: cut by 25 bps to an all-time low of 1.75 percent
March 2005: cut by 25 bps to 2 percent
January 2005: cut by 25 bps to 2.25 percent
August 2004: hike by 25 bps to 2.50 percent
((Reporting by Jan Lopatka, editing by David Stamp;
prague.newsroom@reuters.com; Reuters Messaging:
jan.lopatka.reuters.com@reuters.net; +420-224 190 474))
Keywords: ECONOMY CZECH CBANK FACTBOX