* Concerns about Japanese demand persist
* Mideast turmoil, Libya conflict keep oil supported
* J.P. Morgan raises 2011 oil price forecasts
* Coming up: CFTC positions data at 3:30 p.m. EDT Friday
(Recasts, updates prices and market activity)
By Robert Gibbons
NEW YORK, March 25 (Reuters) - Oil prices dipped slightly
in choppy, thin trade on Friday as traders weighed concerns
about Middle East unrest and Libya's conflict as well as demand
for oil in quake-hit Japan and debt-laden Europe.
Investors eyed the threat to oil demand from Japan, where
radiation fears escalated. []
Concerns about euro zone debt woes continued and while U.S.
fourth quarter economic growth rate was revised higher, a
Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan survey showed consumer
sentiment fell this month to its lowest since November 2009.
[] []
Protests in Yemen, Syria, Bahrain and by Shi'ites in Saudi
Arabia kept concerns about unrest and the threat to supply from
region in focus. [] []
[] []
Rebel forces and those loyal to Libyan leader Muammar
Gaddafi clashed as Western warplanes struck at armor used by
the government to crush the revolt. []
Brent crude futures for May delivery <LCOc1> dipped 30
cents to $115.42 a barrel by 1:55 p.m. EDT (1855 GMT), having
seesawed between $115.20 and $116.13.
U.S. May crude futures <CLc1> fell 26 cents to $105.34 a
barrel, swinging between $104.50 and $105.95.
"We've had a good run this week and for today we are seeing
some pre-weekend profit-taking. While there is a lot of turmoil
in the Middle East, none of the ongoing unrest affects big oil
producers," said Ed Meir, senior commodities analyst at MF
Global in New York.
"And on balance we are not short of physical supply.
Libya's outage due to the fighting there has been offset by
Saudi production and the demand in Japan is down. So there's no
real tightness in supply at the moment."
BRENT/WTI SPREAD ALSO SEESAWS
Brent's premium to the U.S. benchmark West Texas
Intermediate crude <CL-LCO1=R>, down 23 cents at $10.11 a
barrel, was choppy on Friday, swinging from $9.83 to $11.24,
but remaining well off its March 1 record above $17.
Brent and U.S. crude have stalled ahead of 2011 peaks. The
May Brent may run into resistance ahead of its contract peak of
$118.42, before approaching the 2011 front-month intraday high
of $119.79 struck on Feb. 24.
U.S. crude has been unable to move above its 2011 high of
$106.95 reached on March 7 and several recent moves above $106
have stalled.
Total U.S. crude trading volume, at just over 321,000 lots
traded, continued to track well below the 30-day average. Brent
trading volume also remained anemic at just above 208,000
lots.
The U.S. volume was on track to be one of the lowest weekly
volumes in 2011.
<^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Graphic on U.S. failure to beat 2011 peak:
http://r.reuters.com/wyd78r
More on Middle East unrest: [] []
Libya Graphics http://link.reuters.com/neg68r
Interactive graphic http://link.reuters.com/puk87r
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^>
PRICE SPIKE EXPECTED
With an expected summer driving demand boost and continuing
supply uncertainty, J.P. Morgan analysts headed by Lawrence
Eagles raised oil price forecasts for 2011 for Brent and U.S.
crude. []
"So long as ongoing problems in the Middle East continue to
elevate risks of a further supply disruption, there is a strong
likelihood of a price spike in the second quarter as the market
demands additional oil to meet summer demand," J.P. Morgan said
in a research note.
Analysts polled by Reuters this week forecast oil prices
will hold over $100 a barrel through 2013, due to tensions in
the Middle East, with average forecasts for 2011 raised by $12
to over $104 a barrel. []
(Additional reporting by Gene Ramos in New York, Christopher
Johnson in London and Alejandro Barbajosa in Singapore; Editing
by Marguerita Choy)
