PRAGUE, Aug 6 (Reuters) - Czech manufacturing output
continued solid recovery in June although it slightly lagged
analysts forecasts, while retail sales showed a sharp upturn and
imports soared.
Czech industry expanded by 9.7 percent versus a year earlier
in June, slightly below expectations for a 10.0 percent rise
after 16.9 percent growth in the previous month.
Retail sales rose by 6.6 percent year-on-year in June, far
above analysts' forecast for a 1.4 percent growth.
Data also showed foreign trade posted a 10.4 billion crown
($552.3 million) surplus in June, lower than analyst forecasts
for a 18.5 billion surplus.
Exports rose 19.7 percent year-on-year, the eighth rise in a
row. Imports soared by 28.0 percent, the sixth gain since
September 2008, the Czech statistics bureau added.
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KEY POINTS:
(change in percent) June May June fcast
RETAIL SALES (y/y) 6.6 3.1 1.4
INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT June May June fcast
Real pct change y/y 9.7 16.9 10.0
Industrial sales 12.0 17.3 n/a
FOREIGN TRADE
(in bln CZK) June May June fcast
balance 10.42 12.07 (12.34) 18.5
(nominal y/y change in pct)
exports 19.7 24.2 (24.4) 17.2
imports 28.0 25.9 (25.9) 19.4
Details of June retail sales data...............[]
Details of June industrial output data..........[]
Details of June foreign trade data..............[]
*For more details on the data see below.
COMMENTARY:
JIRI SKOP, ANALYST, KOMERCNI BANKA
"The data was good overall. On foreign trade, the export
dynamic was quite good. The smaller surplus was mainly due to
high imports."
"We expect a slowdown in the second half in line with the
slowdown in the euro zone."
RETAIL SALES
- The headline, unadjusted figure includes retail sales plus car
sales and repairs, as well as fuel sales.
- Seasonally-adjusted retail sales including fuels and cars rose
by a real 3.1 percent month-on-month, and rose 5.2 percent
year-on-year in June.
INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT
- Industrial output rose 9.7 percent year on year in June,
versus 16.9 percent in May.
- Overall new orders rose 12.3 percent year-on-year, and new
orders from abroad increased by 6.4 percent.
- Orders in the vehicle making sector rose by 12.5 percent.
- Construction output, measured by a separate index, dropped by
4.7 percent year-on-year in June.
FOREIGN TRADE
- Data also showed the Czech foreign trade posted a 10.4 billion
crown ($552.3 million) surplus in June, smaller than analyst
forecasts in a Reuters poll.
- Exports rose 19.7 percent year-on-year, the eighth rise in the
row. Imports rose by 28.0 percent, the sixth gain since
September 2008.
BACKGROUND:
- Market expectations before release []
- Slovak May trade figures []
- June consumer inflation [] []
- May industrial output []
- Report on last Czech c.bank rate decision......[]
[] []
- For further details on June retail sales, industrial output
and foreign trade data and other past data, Reuters 3000 Xtra
users can click on the Czech Statistical Bureau's website:
http://www.czso.cz/eng/csu.nsf/kalendar/2004-vzo
- For LIVE Czech economic data releases, click on <ECONCZ>
- Instant Views on other Czech data click on []
- Overview of Czech macroeconomic indicators []
- Key data releases in central Europe []
- For Czech money markets data click on <CZKVIEW>
- Czech money guide <CZK/1>
- Czech benchmark state bond prices <0#CZBMK=>
- Czech forward money market rates <CZKFRA>
(Reporting by Jan Lopatka)
