(Recasts, adds cbanker quote, detail)
By Kuba Jaworowski and Karolina Slowikowska
WARSAW, Dec 5 (Reuters) - Poland's central bank will likely
ease interest rates further in months ahead and a more
aggressive half-point move in December cannot be ruled out,
Monetary Policy Council member Jan Czekaj said on Friday.
Czekaj, a moderate on the 10-strong council whose vote has
proved decisive on past rate decisions, said the bank would
probably cut rates "a few" times in the near future in a bid to
shield the economy from global financial crisis.
Analysts see the bank's rate-setting panel as divided
between "hawks" and "doves", with Czekaj tipping the balance in
favour of those who have called for swift further cuts after
launching an easing cycle with a quarter-point move last month.
Governor Slawomir Skrzypek and two other dovish members on
Thursday called for swift moves as the European Central Bank's
decision to cut rates by 75 basis points on Thursday bolstered
the case for more easing in Central Europe's emerging economies.
"I believe that in the near future, there will be a few
interest rate cuts," Czekaj told TVN CNBC. "A cut at the meeting
in December cannot be ruled out."
Former communist Central Europe's four biggest economies
have now embarked on easing cycles as the global crisis
deepened, with Hungary cutting rates by 50 basis points at the
start of the month and signalling more was to come.
The Czech central bank started easing as early as August,
while Slovakia has cut rates in line with the ECB as it prepares
to join the euro zone in January.
Czekaj said the economic situation, which saw the government
and economists slash growth forecasts for the next year this
month, could spur the MPC to cut by 25 basis points this month
and said he did not rule out a 50-basis-point move.
GROWTH WORRIES
The Polish bank had stood firm in the face of easing by
central banks across Europe until last month, concerned by an
emerging markets sell-off which hit its zloty currency and
inflation still running above 4 percent.
Dariusz Filar, who has consistently supported tighter policy
than most of his colleagues on the panel, was quoted as saying
on Friday it was hard to opt for rate cuts when inflation
remained above the central bank's 2.5-percent target.
"The (Monetary Policy) Council is in a difficult situation.
It is hard to talk of a recession phenomenon in Poland," Filar,
told Gazeta Wyborcza daily.
"Besides, our inflation is almost twice as high as in the
euro zone. Our wages and loans are also rising incomparably
faster," he said.
But concerns have shifted to growth in recent weeks and
business and politicians have called for cuts by the bank to
prop up the economy.
Analysts expect inflation to moderate in the months ahead
and economic growth to slow to 2.8 percent next year from
5.0-5.5 percent expected in 2008, as recession in the euro zone
saps demand for exports.
Including Czekaj, analysts say the doves on the 10-strong
council likely have five votes. With Skrzypek's casting vote in
the event of a tie, that would deliver a cut at the next
meeting, ending on Dec. 23.
A Reuters poll this week showed most analysts plumping for a
25-basis-point cut to 5.5 percent. Three predicted 50 basis
points. The median forecast was for the main rate to fall to 4.5
percent by the end of next year.
"We usually adopted a policy of small steps...but the
situation now is extraordinary and it will call for
extraordinary measures, " Czekaj said.
(Editing by Patrick Graham)
