BUDAPEST, Feb 14 (Reuters) - Emerging European currencies
were mixed on Monday although stock gains indicated they may
rise, as investors looked ahead to data releases this week and
to details of Hungary's planned fiscal reforms, dealers said.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is expected to outline
later on Monday some measures of a fiscal reform programme
designed to put the country's budget on a sustainable path by
the time temporary measures to boost revenues expire in 2013.
"Fundamentally, there is time and there is optimism," said a
dealer in Budapest. "Orban is only expected to give firm details
of his programme in March, so we expect no reaction even if he
says little of substance today."
"In case he comes out with a strong programme, the forint
could strengthen further. The next strong resistance is at the
(EUR/HUF) 268 level," the dealer said.
Orban is due to speak at 1200 GMT.
The forint <EURHUF=> was 0.2 percent stronger at 0840 GMT,
followed by gains of 0.1 percent in the Romanian leu <EURRON=>.
The Czech crown <EURCZK=> was flat, while the Polish zloty
<EURPLN=> dipped 0.1 percent.
Analysts from Danske Bank said the Polish zloty had
underperformed regional peers last week, especially as
measured against the dollar. Dealers said the weakening
correction may have run out of steam, however, and the zloty
could post gains this week if the stock market rises.
Economic growth and rising interest rates are expected to
boost Poland's zloty by 5 percent in the next 12 months, leading
a rise in central European currencies, according to a Reuters
poll of 40 analysts this month. []
Stocks around the region opened higher, with Budapest <>
dictating the tempo with a 1 percent rise as of 0844 GMT.
This week sees a heavy schedule of data releases in the
region. Poland and Hungary release January inflation figures on
Tuesday, while Hungary, the Czech Republic and Romania give
fourth-quarter GDP estimates.
Romania kicked off the series of releases, recording a 7
percent annual inflation for January, down from 8 percent in
December. Analysts said the data should have no immediate impact
on interest rates or short-term exchange rates. []
Inflation in Romania is widely expected to fall sharply this
year and analysts see the central bank cutting rates further
from a record low 6.25 percent, although pressures from surging
global food prices could limit the room for rate cuts.
The Czech crown was seen steady ahead of Tuesday's GDP data.
"The crown is not likely to react to good data, but in the
case of weaker data it could be a stimulus for a correction back
to its fundamentals above 24.500," Ceska Sporitelna analyst Jana
Krajcova said in a note.
--------------------------MARKET SNAPSHOT--------------------
Currency Latest Previous Local Local
close currency currency
change change
today in 2011
Czech crown <EURCZK=> 24.203 24.21 +0.03% +3.29%
Polish zloty <EURPLN=> 3.921 3.917 -0.1% +0.94%
Hungarian forint <EURHUF=> 270.6 271.2 +0.22% +2.73%
Croatian kuna <EURHRK=> 7.407 7.409 +0.03% -0.36%
Romanian leu <EURRON=> 4.248 4.254 +0.14% -0.35%
Serbian dinar <EURRSD=> 103.39 103.38 -0.01% +2.45%
All data taken from Reuters at 0940 CET.
Currency percent change calculated from the daily domestic
close at 1700 GMT.
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(Reporting by Reuters bureaux, writing by Marton Dunai; Editing
by Catherine Evans)
