* Polish cbanker says will cut 2.6 pct 2009 growth forecast
* Czech cbank gov says 2.9 pct 2009 growth fcast will be cut
* Romanian cbanker says economy will not contract this year
* Serb cbanker says 3.5 pct 2009 GDP forecast "optimistic"
By Balasz Koranyi and Michael Winfrey
VIENNA, Jan 21 (Reuters) - Poland's central bank will cut
its 2.6 percent forecast for growth of ex-communist Central
Europe's biggest economy, a bank official said on Wednesday, as
concerns rose over the fate of the previously fast-growing
region.
Central bankers from Romania and the Czech Republic also
said their economies would perform worse than earlier thought as
the European Union sinks into a recession, domestic demand wanes
and domestic credit dries up.
All, however, remained optimistic their economies could
avoid recession after a month that has seen protests over
growing economic pain among young people and the middle class in
Lithuania, Bulgaria and Latvia bubble over into violence.
Some analysts have warned recession is on the cards for most
of the EU's eastern members, who have sharply outgrown their
more developed neighbours in recent years as they close the
prosperity gap left by half a century of central planning.
Zbigniew Hockuba, a member of the Polish central bank's
management board, told a conference it would be forced to cut
the 2.6 percent forecast for this year, from an expected 5
percent in 2008, when it makes its new forecast next month.
"We know that the February projection that we are just
preparing, ... will be lower," said Hockuba, who is responsible
for the bank's inflation projection but is not on the
rate-setting Monetary Policy Council.
He said price growth, which has sunk in recent months making
it easier for the bank to cut official borrowing costs to
support the economy, was not a serious problem.
Brussels earlier this week forecast Poland's growth at 2
percent this year, while deputy Finance Minister Ludwik Kotecki
told a parliamentary committee on Wednesday that GDP rose 4.8
percent for all of last year.
FORECASTS FALLING
Inflation is rapidly slowing across the region. The
export-heavy region is also seeing a fall in production, while
domestic demand has been hit by a contraction in bank lending
and the prospect of layoffs.
EU non-members are also feeling squeezed. Serb central bank
chief Radovan Jelasic said the governments fresh forecast of 3.5
percent growth for this year may not be realistic [].
"It (the projection) looks rather optimistic," Jelasic told
Reuters. "We definitely see that the risks are growing regarding
the ability of Serbia to have 3.5 percent GDP increase this
year."
Czech central bank Governor Zdenek Tuma offered a similar
assessment and said that new growth forecasts, due next month,
will be lower than its latest ones.
Made in October and released in November, those projected a
base scenario for 2009 growth of 2.9 percent and an alternative,
more pessimistic scenario of 0.5.
"All I can say is that growth will be lower than expected in
October," Tuma said. The European Commission this week forecast
Czech growth at 1.7 percent for this year.
In Romania, one of the economies in the region seen most at
risk due to a high current account deficit, the central bank
expects growth to slow sharply.
But Deputy-Governor Cristian Popa said: "We do not believe
that Romanian growth will enter negative territory."
He said that unlike most central banks in the region, his
remained preoccupied with inflation, although the bank forecast
price growth to slow down in the "foreseeable future".
The European Commission this week forecast Romanian gross
domestic product growth (GDP) will slow to 1.8 percent this
year, from some 8 percent in 2008.
Popa added that a sharp drop in the leu currency, which hit
record lows against the euro this month at 4.3530 per euro
<EURRON=>, was more a feature of pessimism toward the region,
rather than the Romanian economy.
(Reporting by Balazs Koranyi, Peter Laca, Mike Winfrey; editing
by Patrick Graham)
