PRAGUE, Oct 29 (Reuters) - The Czech Republic's main
opposition party, the Social Democrats, opened a two-digit lead
over the ruling right-wing group this month, an opinion poll
showed on Wednesday.
The survey by the CVVM agency showed the leftist Social
Democrats would win 40 percent of the vote in a parliamentary
election now, up from 34 percent a month ago.
Support for the Civic Democrats -- hurt by unpopular
economic reforms, internal mudslinging and plans to host a U.S.
missile defence base -- dropped to 26.5 percent from 29 percent,
the biggest gap behind the opposition since the 2006 election.
The results were in line with the opposition's strong
victory in regional and upper house elections over the past two
weekends, which sparked a riot in the Civic Democrat party
against its chief and Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek.
The party's First Vice-Chairman Pavel Bem has said he would
run for party chairmanship against Topolanek at a congress in
December, but added he wanted to keep the government in place in
case he won. Topolanek has vowed to fight on.
The opposition has called for an early lower house poll
after trouncing the government in the regional election, but it
does not have the power to trigger the vote.
The Civic Democrats have ruled in a shaky coalition -- which
now lacks a majority -- with the centrist Christian Democrats
(KDU-CSL) and the Green Party since January 2007.
The coalition has 98 votes in the 200-seat lower house and
relies on several independents to push through laws, but rebel
backbenchers have often undermined policy initiatives.
The survey showed the coalition would win 42 percent of the
vote, lagging the opposition Social Democrats and the far-left
Communists with a combined 54.5 percent.
The next election is due in 2010.
DATE INSTITUTE ODS CSSD KSCM KDU-CSL Greens
Oct 29/08 CVVM 26.5 40.0 14.5 7.0 8.5
Sept 17/08 CVVM 29.0 34.0 16.0 7.5 10.0
Sept 16/08 STEM 22.3 32.6 11.8 5.9 8.4
June 18/08 STEM 24.0 33.7 11.8 4.5 8.1
June 18/08 CVVM 27.5 37.0 15.5 7.5 10.5
May 28/08 CVVM 26.5 38.0 16.0 7.5 9.0
May 20/08 STEM 24.8 30.3 11.3 5.2 10.6
April 24/08 CVVM 30.0 34.0 15.0 8.5 10.5
April 16/08 STEM 23.4 31.2 11.3 5.5 9.2
March 21/08 CVVM 32.0 36.0 13.0 7.0 10.0
March 14/08 STEM 24.2 30.3 10.7 5.3 8.9
March 07/08 FI 30.7 37.3 16.2 6.0 8.3
Feb 21/08 CVVM 27.0 36.5 16.0 8.5 9.0
Feb 15/08 STEM 26.7 31.1 10.6 7.0 9.4
Jan 31/08 CVVM 27.0 37.0 16.5 7.5 10.0
Jan 25/08 FI 27.8 38.0 17.5 6.4 7.6
Jan 15/08 STEM 24.3 31.0 13.1 6.0 8.2
Dec 19/07 CVVM 28.0 35.0 16.5 6.5 11.5
Dec 18 STEM 24.5 33.3 11.8 6.2 8.7
Nov 22 CVVM 29.0 36.0 16.0 5.5 10.5
Nov 21 FI 27.9 34.2 15.3 8.0 10.2
Nov 14 STEM 27.5 26.9 12.1 5.7 9.4
Oct 22 FI 30.2 31.5 15.8 8.3 6.9
Oct 19 CVVM 30.0 36.0 15.0 8.0 9.0
Oct 16 STEM 25.9 30.5 11.3 6.6 8.8
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June 2006 election 35.4 32.3 12.8 7.2 6.3
NOTE. The latest CVVM poll was conducted between Oct 6 and
13 among 788 eligible Czech voters.
The parties are:
- Civic Democratic Party (ODS) - right-of-centre,
liberal-conservative
- The Czech Social Democratic Party (CSSD) - leftist
- Christian Democratic Union-Czechoslovak People's Party
(KDU-CSL) - centrist
- The Communist Party of Bohemia and Moravia (KSCM) - far left
- The Greens - environmentalists, centrist.
Pollsters: The FI and CVVM results are based on a model
predicting gains at the poll box, excluding those not willing to
vote and undecided.
STEM results are direct voter preferences, and include
replies from all respondents including those not willing to
vote. Parties should thus win a larger than indicated share of
the vote at the election.
(Reporting by Jan Lopatka; Editing by Michael Winfrey)
