* IEA predicts '09 oil demand growth after '08 contraction
* Saudi says Nov. oil output complies with OPEC target
* OPEC should make more severe output cut - president
(Updates prices)
NEW YORK, Dec 11 (Reuters) - Oil prices surged nearly 10
percent to above $47 a barrel on Thursday after the
International Energy Agency forecast global oil demand would
rebound next year and Saudi Arabia, the world's top exporter,
said it pumped less oil last month than analysts had expected.
World oil demand growth would return in 2009, after
shrinking this year for the first time since 1983, the IEA,
which advises 28 industrial nations on energy policy, said in a
monthly report. It also cut forecasts for supply outside OPEC
next year. []
"We knew the bad bits, demand down, but the supply
downgrade was supportive," said Rob Laughlin of MF Global.
U.S. crude <CLc1> was up $4.44 at $47.96 a barrel by 12:27
p.m. EST (1727 GMT), after hitting a high of $48.35. London
Brent crude <LCOc1> traded up $4.60 at $47.00 a barrel.
Oil rose as the U.S. dollar weakened after data on weekly
U.S. jobless claims came in worse than expected.
[] A weak dollar can boost investor demand for oil
and other dollar-denominated commodities.
The IEA's view that demand would grow in 2009 contrasts
with that of the U.S. government's Energy Information
Administration, which this week forecast consumption would fall
by 450,000 barrels per day next year.
The Paris-based IEA also lowered forecasts for supply from
outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries in
2009, leading to a 200,000 bpd increase in the amount it said
OPEC needs to pump to balance the market.
SAUDI OUTPUT
Also boosting prices, Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said
the kingdom pumped 8.49 million bpd of oil in November, less
than estimated by analysts and in line with its OPEC target.
"We will give you the November number, because that's what
everybody is looking for," Naimi said during a visit to Poznan,
Poland. "It's 8,493,300 barrels per day."
That would put the kingdom's output in line with its
implied OPEC target of 8.47 million bpd and is 560,000 bpd less
than the IEA's estimate of Saudi November production, published
earlier on Thursday, of 9.05 million bpd.
Industry sources told Reuters on Wednesday they expected
Saudi Arabia's January shipments to be below its existing OPEC
target, implying OPEC expects to agree to a further supply cut
when the producer group meets in Algeria on Dec. 17.
OPEC's president also raised expectations that a large cut
in supplies is coming.
The group should agree to a more "severe" reduction in
output at its meeting next week in Algeria, OPEC President
Chakib Khelil said in remarks published on Thursday, which made
no mention of a figure. []
Russia, which will attend the OPEC meeting as an observer
amid calls from some members for Moscow to join in output
curbs, said on Wednesday it will present its own proposal at
the talks.
Oil has fallen by about $100 a barrel from a record high of
$147.27 reached in July.
(Reporting by Alex Lawler in London, Anna Mudeva in Poznan and
Jennifer Tan in Singapore; Editing by Walter Bagley)
