PRAGUE, Jan 8 (Reuters) - The Czech foreign trade balance
posted a 0.5 billion crown ($25.97 million) deficit in November
on sharply falling exports, while analysts had expected a
surplus, data showed on Thursday.
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KEY POINTS:
(in bln CZK) Nov Oct Nov fcast
balance -0.47 -3.95 4.1
(nominal y/y change in pct)
exports -18.0 -10.7 n/a
imports -13.2 -5.9 n/a
(For full table of trade data, click on........[])
- According to seasonally-adjusted preliminary data, exports
fell 4.3 percent in November from October, while imports slipped
7.9 percent month-on-month.
- In euro terms, exports fell 12.9 percent and imports dipped
7.8 percent year-on-year in November.
- November monthly deficit is the worst since 2003.
COMMENTARY:
RADOMIR JAC, CHIEF ANALYST, GENERALI PPF ASSET MANAGEMENT
"The trend is clear: exports will be falling due to
recession in major export destinations and cheaper mineral fuel
prices are not able to compensate for that in terms of the
overall trade balance."
"Thus the trade balance will worsen further in 2009. As
regards weak dynamics of exports and imports, they serve as
clear signals of weakening economic activity in the Czech
Republic, as the small open economy is inevitably hit by the
West European recession."
"The trade data are negative news for the Czech crown and
supportive to expectations that the Czech central bank will cut
interest rates again at its next meeting."
JAROMIR SINDEL, CHIEF ECONOMIST, CITIBANK, PRAGUE
"There was a smaller number of working days, but it does not
change the big picture of slowing industrial production ... and
the (economic) slowdown will be accompanying us in full strength
in 2009."
"We expect that the central bank will cut interest rates to
1.75 percent in the first quarter and to 1.50 percent in the
second quarter, because the ECB (European Central Bank) will
reduce rates more significantly to 1 percent in the first half
of the year."
DAVID MAREK, CHIEF ECONOMIST, PATRIA FINANCE
"The result was what we expected. What is more important is
the strong decline in exports... It is closely related to the
bad shape of the German economy."
"This year we can expect the trade balance surplus falling
close to zero. The worsening export performance is the main drag
on the Czech economy, and taking GDP growth in 2009 close to
zero as well."
"This is another strong indication for quickly cutting
interest rates by 50 basis points at the next meeting in
February."
VOJTECH BENDA, ANALYST, ING WHOLESALE BANKING
"The 18 percent year-on-year fall of exports indicates we
will likely see more significant decline of November industrial
production than the market consensus of 8.9 percent.
"The weakening performance of Czech exports should likely
fuel the ongoing depreciation trend of the Czech crown in the
medium-term."
MARKET REACTION:
Crown fimrms to 26.280 to the euro <EURCZK=> from 26.295
ahead of the data.
BACKGROUND:
- Market expectations before release []
- Slovak October trade figures []
- Report on last Czech c.bank rate decision.......[]
[] [] []
- For further details on November foreign trade and other past
data, Reuters 3000 Xtra users can click on the Czech Statistical
Bureau's website:
http://www.czso.cz/eng/csu.nsf/kalendar/2004-vzo
- For LIVE Czech economic data releases, click on <ECONCZ>
- Instant Views on other Czech data click on []
- Overview of Czech macroeconomic indicators []
- Key data releases in central Europe []
- For Czech money markets data click on <CZKVIEW>
- Czech money guide <CZK/1>
- Czech benchmark state bond prices <0#CZBMK=>
- Czech forward money market rates <CZKFRA>
(Reporting by Jason Hovet, editing by Jan Lopatka)
