* WHAT: Aug retail sales, industrial output, Sept CPI
* WHEN: Retail sales, output on Oct 7, CPI on Oct 11
* REUTERS FORECASTS: Retail sales median forecast 2.7
percent yr/yr vs -1.0 pct in July, industrial output median
forecast 8.0 percent yr/yr vs 5.3 percent in July, CPI median
forecast -0.3 percent mo/mo and 1.9 percent yr/yr, the same as
August.
Twelve analysts participated in the poll and the range of
views on retail sales was 1.0 percent to 4.7 percent, industrial
output 5.3 percent to 12.7 percent. Inflation predictions ranged
from 1.7 percent to 2.0 percent year on year and -0.2 percent to
-0.6 percent on the month.
* FACTORS TO WATCH: A pick-up in household demand, already
evident in second quarter GDP data, is likely to swing August
retail sales <CZRSLY=ECI> into positive territory, after a July
drop which analysts said was mainly for technical reasons.
"The monthly data is very volatile but the point is that the
trend shows a gradual improvement, last month was rather an
exception," said Miroslav Plojhar, EMEA Economist at JP Morgan.
"The labour market seems to be gradually improving, or at
least it is not worsening, banks are more active in providing
consumer loans, which should lead to a gradual rise in demand."
Demand should recover despite the expected pick-up in power
prices and a cut in public sector wages which is part of the
government's austerity drive, he said.
This should have no immediate implications for monetary
policy as any upturn in demand typically is reflected in
consumer inflation, targeted by the bank, with a delay.
The central bank minutes on Friday pointed to "unexpectedly
higher" household consumption, propped up by higher wages and
lower-than-expected unemployment, as an upside inflation risk.
But the meeting notes stressed the higher consumption was
not reflected in the current inflation rate. []
The crown, which hit a 23-month high on Friday, was also
taming inflation pressures.
CPI <CZCPIY=ECI>, the bank's preferred measure of inflation,
was forecast up 1.9 percent year on year in September, the same
as in August, and showing a continued absence of demand
pressures.
Month on month, prices were expected to fall 0.3 percent,
also the same as in August.
Citibank's Jaromir Sindel said the data would be affected by
the lower prices of holiday packages, food, fuel and cars, and
should dispel expectations of early policy tightening.
Industrial output <CZIPY=ECI> was forecast to increase for a
ninth straight month, driven mainly by German demand.
* MARKET REACTION: Markets are unlikely to react strongly to
the data. The crown <EURCZK=> has been driven chiefly by global
risks.
For the preview table: []
Czech stats office website: www.czso.cz
Czech labour and social affairs ministry www.mpsv.cz
All Czech economic data: <ECONALLCZ>
Central and Eastern Europe market report: []
(Reporting by Jana Mlcochova, editing by Tim Pearce)
