SINGAPORE, Sept 24 (Reuters) - Spot gold held steady below
an all-time high of $1,296.10 an ounce on Friday, and analysts
expect the bullish trend for the metal to remain.
Here are comments from analysts on their technical views of
gold:
WANG TAO, MARKET ANALYST, REUTERS
Spot gold <XAU=> is expected to rise to $1,539 per ounce by
the end of this year, going by its wave pattern and a Fibonacci
projection analysis, but a drop below a pivotal support at
$1,234 would violate the bullish outlook.
A long-term perspective on the monthly chart back to the
1960s presents a bullish scenario, with the existing wave "C"
progressing towards $1,539, the 161.8 percent Fibonacci
projection level, based on the length of wave "A", as the 100
percent level at $1,046 has been surpassed in January.
The wave pattern on the weekly chart
(http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/WT/20102209175545.jpg)
supports a bullish outlook, because the rally from the Oct.
2008 low at $680.80 is labeled as an impulsive five-wave mode.
The extended wave (5) is pointing to $1,515, as indicated
by two upper trendlines meeting at a point, and a 161.8 percent
Fibonacci projection based on the length of wave "1".
Both the wave pattern and a triangle pattern on the daily
chart
(http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/WT/20102209182249.jpg)
confirm the bullish views derived from the monthly and the
weekly charts, as the rally from the July 28 low at $1,156.90
adopted an impulsive wave mode, with the wave "3" capable of
pushing the price higher above the upper trendline of a big
triangle, after which, gold will speed up the rally towards
$1,539.
For a graphic showing the long-term gold technical
outlook:
http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/WT/20102209174142.jpg
TOSA ANASTASIOUS, TECHNICAL STRATEGIST, UBS
The medium term trend in gold remains bullish as the metal
continues to post fresh historic high's. Momentum and trend
studies still appear healthy and this supports the outlook for
further gains in gold.
The focus is on $1,300.00 which is the next psychological
resistance. Over the medium term, a bull channel gold has been
in since Oct 2008 projects gains to $1450.00 over the coming
months."
It is worth noting that at current levels, gold is
overbought and this raises the chances of a correction over the
near term. Key support has been defined at $1157.60 which is
the July 28 low although support around $1220.00 should provide
a firm foundation on any pullback. Dips would be seen as a buy.
JOHN SCHOFIELD, DIRECTOR, TEMPUS INVESTMENT CORP
As you know Gold is in a very nice long term uptrend,
albeit punctuated by regular corrections. The current move
targets $1,360 in my view as the rallies are about US$200 from
the low points.
There may be temporary resistance at $1,300, being the
measured target from the large 08-09 trading range. If the
rally-pullback-rally pattern repeats itself my next target will
be $1,500 after a pullback to $1,300.
These targets may prove to be conservative if the bull
market starts to accelerate (as we would expect in the later
stages of a major bull cycle) and the size of any upward moves
gets bigger/longer each time.
DARYL GUPPY, CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER, GUPPYTRADERS.COM
"The uptrend line starting July 28 is used to define the
continuation of the uptrend as the price moves towards the next
target level at $1,355. The September 13 reaction away from
resistance and dip below the trend line was temporary.
"The price target level is calculated by measuring the
width of the trading band between $1,160 and $1,260. This value
is projected upwards and gives an upside target near $1,355."
"The trendline break is an alert signal. Trend reversal is
confirmed with a move below the 15-day Exponential Moving
Average."
For a technical outlook, click:
http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/WT/20102409145656.jpg
(Reporting by Rujun Shen; Editing by Ed Lane)
