PRAGUE, Sept 8 (Reuters) - The Czech statistics bureau
raised its preliminary estimate for second quarter gross
domestic product growth by 0.1 percentage point to 0.9 percent
qauarter-on-quarter on Wednesday.
The economy increased by a real 2.4 percent on an annual
basis in the second quarter, more than the flash estimate
showing a growth of 2.2 percent.
The Czech year-on-year figure lagged the expansion
in neighbouring Slovakia, which posted 4.7 percent year-on-year
growth in April-June, but better than a 1.0 percent growth in
Hungary.
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KEY POINTS:
CZECH Q2 GDP (pct) Q/Q YR/YR
Real change 0.9 (0.8) 2.4 (2.2)
(For full table of Q2 GDP data................[])
CENTRAL BANK FORECAST
The central bank saw a 1.8 percent year-on-year growth. The
bank was due to release a comment on the data later on
Wednesday.
CZECH STATS OFFICE STATEMENT
- The higher annual rise in the second quarter compared with the
first quarter was due to the low comparative base, because the
bottom of Czech economic performance was in the second quarter
of 2009, the stats office said.
- Gross added value rose 2.7 percent year on year mainly thanks
to a 3.8 percent growth in manufacturing. The energy sector grew
by 7.7 percent and the transportation sector rose by 5.3
percent.
- The demand side was boosted by 6.7 percent growth in gross
capital formation, which contributed to the GDP growth by 1.3
percentage points.
- The total annual 0.9 percent increase of final consumption
expenditure contributed positively by 0.6 percentage point to
the GDP growth.
- Foreign trade contributed to the GDP grow by 0.4 percentage
points, the office said.
COMMENTARY:
PAVE SOBISEK, CHIEF ECONOMIST, UNCREDIT BANK, PRAGUE
"The difference is too small to mean a fundamental change.
"It confirms the view that the Czech economy was in the
phase of a gradual acceleration in the second quarter.
"However, it lags behind the most dynamic economies
including Slovakia.
"The difference between the real economic growth and the
central bank forecast is widening. It is possible the central
bank will raise its estimate for growth... which might mean an
earlier rise in interest rates."
DAVID MAREK, CHIEF ECONOMIST, PATRIA FINANCE
"The numbers brought a pleasant surprise, it perhaps could
have been expected that the Czech figures would be improved
after the German data. German GDP was very high, that was a
positive surprise too.
"As for the structure, there may be a surprise in the
positive contribution of household consumption, which was not
small at all. Another positive surprise was brought by the
recovery of investment activity - gross capital formation was
plus 6.7 percent - that is a high number.
"GDP also continues to draw support from foreign trade,
that is connected to the above mentioned development in Germany."
MICHAL BROZKA, ANALYST, RAIFFEISENBANK, PRAGUE
"The positive sign is that speculation about a
quarter-on-quarter growth in household consumption was
confirmed, showing that consumer confidence is not that poor.
"The central bank will probably take into account the
household consumption number, together with a further drop in
unemployment.
"However we still believe that its is too early for thoughts
about raising interest rates and we do not expect that this
year."
VOJTECH BENDA, SENIOR ANALYST, ING COMMERCIAL BANKING,
PRAGUE
"The positive news is the rebound in private consumption,
despite moderation in real wage growth...and high unemployment."
"This signals the economic confidence of households is
gradually improving. The impressive growth in exports will
unlikely persist in medium term horizon hence the recovery in
private consumption will offset the lower positive contribution
of net exports to the overall GDP in coming quarters."
"The economic performance so far is touch better than the
central bank forecast which should support the more hawkish
members in the board who advocate an early rate hike."
MARKET REACTION:
Crown flat after the data at 24.69 to the euro <EURCZK=>.
BACKGROUND:
- For story on analysts' expectations before the data release,
double click on..................................[]
- Slovak Q2 GDP..................................[]
- Poland's Q2 GDP................................[]
- Hungary's Q2 GDP...............................[]
LINKS:
- For further details on second quarter GDP and past data,
Reuters 3000 Xtra users can click on the Czech Statistical
Bureau's website:
http://www.czso.cz/eng/csu.nsf/kalendar/2004-hdp
- For LIVE Czech economic data releases, click on <ECONCZ>
- Instant Views on other Czech data []
- Overview of Czech macroeconomic indicators []
- Key data releases in central Europe []
- For Czech money markets data click on <CZKVIEW>
- Czech money guide <CZK/1>
- Czech benchmark state bond prices <0#CZBMK=>
- Czech forward money market rates <CZKFRA>
(Compiled by Jana Mlcochova, editing by Jan Lopatka)
