PRAGUE, Dec 18 (Reuters) - Czech retail sales dipped by 3.3
percent year-on-year in October, the lowest level since August,
after a revised growth of 6.1 percent in September, data showed
on Thursday.
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KEY POINTS:
(change in percent) Oct Sept Oct forecast
RETAIL SALES (y/y) -3.3 6.1 (5.9) 0.6
(Click on [] for full table of October retail
sales)
- The headline, unadjusted figure includes car sales and
repairs, fuel sales and spending on a variety of consumer goods,
including foodstuffs.
- Seasonally-adjusted retail sales dipped by a real 0.9 percent
month-on-month and 0.6 percent year-on-year in October.
COMMENTARY:
PAVEL SOBISEK, CHIEF ECONOMIST, UNICREDIT, PRAGUE
"The abrupt loss of momentum which we observed in the
production sphere seems to be hitting consumer behaviour in the
same moment."
"It can be bad for GDP in the fourth quarter, even though we
only have data just from one month. The question is how the
remaining two months of the quarter will develop."
"The Czech central bank is aware that something really
serious is going on in the economy, and nobody knows at this
moment how deep activity will slow."
JAROMIR SINDEL, ECONOMIST, CITIBANK
"It is about weak wages that were hit by inflation this
year."
"We can expect some improvement in 2009... but the
improvement in real wages will be of course compensated for by
growing unemployment."
TOMAS VLK, PATRIA FINANCE, ANALYST
"There is a moderately negative influence of fewer working
days. The figure overall confirms negative tendencies in the
economy that should continue.
"It is linked with a smaller growth in real wages.
"Probably there will be a growth in unemployment as well
which will have a negative influence on retail sales at the turn
of the year.
"(The number) confirms an outlook for interest rates to drop
early next year."
JAN VEJMELEK, HEAD OF ECONOMIC AND STRATEGY RESEARCH,
KOMERCNI BANKA
"It is a very weak figure, well below expectations and even
below the most pessimistic forecasts.
"It clearly shows that consumer demand is very weak. The
combination of weak domestic and external demand is very
negative for the Czech economy.
"It shows that GDP for the fourth quarter will be very bad,
and it is in line with what was said yesterday at the central
bank board meeting that the outlook is bad and rate cuts will
continue.
"Our forecast is that interest rates will be cut to 1.50
percent in the first quarter, but there is growing risk that our
forecast will be revised down.
"This figure supports the view of cut, cut, cut."
BACKGROUND:
- November consumer inflation []
[]
- October industrial output figures []
- Report on last Czech c.bank rate decision......[]
[] [] []
LINKS:
- For further details on October retail sales and past data,
Reuters 3000 Xtra users can click on the Czech Statistical
Bureau's website:
http://www.czso.cz/eng/csu.nsf/kalendar/2004-slu
- For LIVE Czech economic data releases, click on <ECONCZ>
- Instant Views on other Czech data []
- Overview of Czech macroeconomic indicators []
- Key data releases in central Europe []
- For Czech money markets data click on <CZKVIEW>
- Czech money guide <CZK/1>
- Czech benchmark state bond prices <0#CZBMK=>
- Czech forward money market rates <CZKFRA>
(Reporting by Jana Mlcochova; Editing by Victoria Main)
