LONDON, Feb 5 (Reuters) - Ratings agency Fitch said on
Thursday it expected more downgrades across emerging Europe, a
day after it became the second ratings group to downgrade Russia
as the financial crisis ravages the region.
Fitch downgraded Russia on Wednesday to BBB with a negative
outlook citing collapsing foreign-exchange reserves, mounting
corporate debt problems, falling oil and commodity prices and
massive capital flight in recent months.
Bulgaria, Latvia, Romania and Turkey are among those that
have seen their sovereign ratings cut.
Here is a list of long-term foreign currency ratings and
outlooks for countries in emerging Europe, until recently seen
as one of the safest regions across emerging markets but now
exposed to credit worries, recession in the euro zone and
increased banking problems.
COUNTRY S&P MOODY's FITCH
BULGARIA BBB Baa3 BBB-
Negative Stable Stable
Fitch cut Bulgaria's foreign currency rating on Nov. 10 to
BBB-, the lowest investment-grade level, saying its marked
decline in external financing flows has heightened its recession
risks.
CROATIA BBB Baa3 BBB-
Negative Stable Stable
Fitch said on Dec. 8 that Croatia's current account deficit
and high external debt were sources of concern although the
country remains relatively sheltered from the impact of the
global financial crisis.
CZECH REPUBLIC A A1 A+
Stable Stable Stable
Moody's on Dec. 8 revised its outlook for the Czech Republic
to stable from positive, noting that the country was unlikely to
have a ratings upgrade in the next 12 to 18 months as it was
facing slowing economic growth.
ESTONIA A A1 A-
Negative Negative Negative
Moody's cut its outlook on Estonia's ratings to "negative"
from "stable" on Nov. 7, saying that the global liquidity crisis
would likely cause the country's economic adjustment to be more
severe than previously envisaged.
HUNGARY BBB A3 BBB
Negative Negative Stable
S&P cut Hungary's sovereign ratings to "BBB/A-3" on Nov. 17,
warning that the country was especially vulnerable to a global
economic slowdown because of its external financing dependency.
ICELAND BBB- Baa1 BBB-
Negative Negative Negative
Moody's on Dec. 4 cut Iceland's rating by one notch with a
negative outlook, saying that the island's banking crisis and
currency collapse had significantly damaged the government's
financial strength.
KAZAKHSTAN BBB- Baa2 BBB-
Negative Stable Negative
Fitch cut Kazakhstan's rating on Nov 10 from BBB, retaining
its negative outlook. S&P has warned that Kazakhstan could face
a sovereign rating downgrade if the cost of a financial sector
bailout rises further.
LATVIA BBB- Baa1 BBB-
Negative Negative Negative
Ratings agency Moody's cut Latvia's rating to Baa1 on Jan 7
and kept its outlook on negative, saying the country still faced
risks despite a 7.5 billion euro IMF-led and EU bailout.
LITHUANIA BBB+ A2 BBB+
Negative Negative Negative
Fitch on Dec. 22 cut Lithuania's rating to BBB+, citing
risks of a severe downturn. Standard & Poor's also has the
country's rating at BBB+. Moody's lowered its outlook on
Lithuania on Nov. 7.
MONTENEGRO BB+ Ba2
Negative Negative
Moody's on Dec. 18 lowered its outlook on Montenegro to
negative from stable, citing the reduced liquidity of its
banking system from the global financial crisis, falling
aluminium prices and shrinking foreign direct investment.
POLAND A- A2 A-
Stable Stable Stable
Standard & Poor's cut its outlook on Poland to stable from
positive on Oct 27, citing the deterioration in the
international markets and tightening credit conditions.
ROMANIA BB+ Baa3 BB+
Negative Stable Negative
Fitch cut Romania's credit rating to "junk" on Nov 10, the
only European Union member with a non-investment grade rating.
Fitch gave the country a negative outlook, citing the risk of a
severe financial and economic crisis.
RUSSIA BBB+ Baa1 BBB
Negative Stable Negative
Fitch on Feb. 04 downgraded Russia to BBB and said further
cuts were possible due to low commodity prices, high capital
outflows, melting reserves and mounting corporate debt problems
-- leaving Russia two notches away from being "junk" grade.
SERBIA BB- BB-
Negative Negative
Fitch on Dec. 23 revised its outlook for Serbia to negative
from stable, saying the country faced heightened credit risks
due to its high external debt as a result of the financial
crisis. In July, S&P said the arrest of wanted war crimes
suspect Radovan Karadzic augured well for Serbia's path to EU
accession but retained its negative outlook on the country
citing economic overheating risks.
TURKEY BB- Ba3 BB-
Negative Stable Stable
S&P on Nov. 13 revised its outlook on Turkey to "negative"
from stable but affirmed the country's "BB-/B" foreign currency
rating. Moody's said on Dec. 2 that the country would retain its
"Ba3" sovereign rating although the momentum was for the rating
to move up in the longer term.
UKRAINE B B1 B+
Negative Stable Negative
Standard & Poor's cut Ukraine's long-term foreign currency
rating to B from B+ on Oct 24 and said the outlook was negative,
citing the cost of bailing out the country's banking sector.
(Compiled by Carolyn Cohn and Sebastian Tong; Editing by Toby
Chopra)
