* Libyan output down more than 25 pct - Reuters calculation
* ENI estimates Libyan output has fallen by 1.2 mln bpd
* North Sea Brent nears $120, U.S. crude over $100 a barrel
* Goldman says fears severe oil market shortages
* Concern of impact of wave of protests on Saudi Arabia
(Updates throughout, changes dateline, pvs SINGAPORE)
By Christopher Johnson
LONDON, Feb 24 (Reuters) - Oil surged more than 7.5 percent
to its highest since August 2008 on Thursday on concern unrest
in Libya could spread to other major oil producers in the Middle
East, including Saudi Arabia.
Brent crude futures for April <LCOc1> spiked up $8.54 per
barrel to a peak of $119.79 before easing back to around $114.00
by 1035 GMT.
Disruption stemming from the revolt in the world's
12th-biggest exporter has cut at least 400,000 barrels per day
(bpd) from Libya's 1.6 million bpd output, according to Reuters
calculations. []
ENI <ENI.MI> Chief Executive Paolo Scaroni provided an
estimate of a much more dramatic fall in Libyan output.
"There are 1.2 million barrels (per day) less on the
market," Scaroni told reporters in Rome. []
Eastern areas holding much of Libya's oil have slipped from
the control of Muammar Gaddafi, who has unleashed a bloody
crackdown on protesters to keep his 41-year grip on power.
Goldman Sachs said the spread of unrest to another producing
country could create severe oil shortages and require demand
rationing.
"The market cannot accommodate another disruption, in our
view, with the problems in Libya potentially absorbing half of
OPEC's spare capacity," analyst Jeffrey Currie said in a
research note.
SAUDI SUPPLIES
Reuters market analyst Wang Tao said technical charts showed
Brent could be on course for a rise to $158 per barrel in 2011,
well above its 2008 high of $147.50, while he expected U.S.
crude to touch $159 per barrel. []
U.S. crude for April delivery <CLc1> rose as high as
$103.41, the highest September 2009. It was up $2.50 at $100.59
at 1035 GMT.
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* http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/WT/20112402104605.jpg
* http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/WT/20112402111227.jpg
Graphic on Brent crude prices and volumes spike:
http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/AS/0810/NT_112402165534.jpg
US oil price rise graphic: http://link.reuters.com/byv28r
Unrest in MidEast, N. Africa: []
Analysis on impact on Libyan oil sector: []
Factbox on Libyan oil and gas: []
Interactive factbox http://link.reuters.com/puk87r
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The cuts from Libya represent the first disruption to supply
as a direct result of protests that have swept through the
oil-producing regions of North Africa and the Middle East.
The concern for oil markets is how unrest might affect Saudi
Arabia, which not only pumps around 10 percent of the world's
oil but is also the only holder of significant spare crude
production capacity that can be used to plug outages.
Without Saudi Arabia's 4 million bpd of spare capacity,
there is little margin in the global oil supply system to deal
with output disruption.
Senior Saudi sources said on Thursday the kingdom could
supply high quality, light oil to replace any lost Libyan crude.
"Saudi is willing and capable of supplying oil of the same
quality, either Arab extra light or through blending," one
source said. "OPEC stipulates that it is able to supply all
types of oil if needed," the source added. []
EXPLICIT MOVE
To date, Saudi Arabia has escaped popular protests that have
raged across the Arab world, toppling the long-time leaders of
Egypt and Tunisia and spreading as far as Saudi neighbour
Bahrain.
Barclays Capital said on Thursday OPEC producers needed to
make an explicit move to reassure the market over oil supplies
if they wished to exert any downward pressure on prices.
"Unless we see an explicit move from ... producer countries,
i.e. Saudi Arabia, I don't think there is necessarily going to
be any downward pressure on (oil) prices," BarCap oil analyst
Amrita Sen said. []
Saudi King Abdullah returned home on Wednesday from a
three-month medical absence and unveiled benefits for Saudis
worth $37 billion in an apparent bid to insulate the oil
exporter from protests in the region. []
Hundreds of people have backed a Facebook page campaigning
for a "day of rage" across the kingdom on March 11 to demand an
elected ruler, greater freedom for women and the release of
political prisoners.
Weekly U.S. oil inventory data from industry group API
showed on Wednesday that petroleum stocks had risen by 163,000
barrels last week, after analysts polled by Reuters had forecast
a bigger rise of 1.2 million barrels. [] []
Distillate inventories fell a less-than-expected 534,000
barrels and gasoline supplies fell 1.6 million barrels, API data
showed, bucking analyst expectations for a rise.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration's weekly
inventory figures are due to be released later today.
(Additional reporting by Luke Pachymuthu in Singapore; editing
by Jane Baird)
